Thursday, March 31, 2011

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)




I've followed this stock since early 2008, but unfortunately I didn't actually place either of the following trades. 

Actually, not placing the first trade doesn't bother me. 

But the second one does... just a little. 

Okay, a lot.

1. SHORT signal the week of 11.10.08 at $8.24 with a stop at $22.43. Traded as low as $4.33 the week of 3.2.09, but before the month was out it had bounced all the way back up and through the $9.82 stop. Loss of -23.8%

2. Reverse to LONG signal the week of 3.30.09 at $10.20 with $4.57 as a stop. Climbed steadily throughout 2009 and 2010, eventually peaking at $85.28 the second week of February 2011. It briefly fell below $75 earlier this month, but bounced back to close last week just a penny short of its high at $85.27. The stop is $65.49. Gain of 736.0%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 1 | 50.0% | $75.07/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 50.0% | -$1.96/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 356.1% | $36.56/share

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Citrix Systems, Inc. (CTXS)

1. LONG the week of 4.21.03 at $17.84 with my stop at $12.02. Slowly traded up to $27.86 the week of 10.13.03, then fell back to around $20 at the end of the year, and finally dropped below my $19.68 stop the week of 2.9.04. Gain of 9.1%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 2.9.04 at $19.47 with a $25.34 stop. Traded sideways in a super tight $19-21 range through the spring before falling to $15.02 in mid-August. From there it rebounded and steadily traded up and through my $19.66 stop the week of 10.4.04. Loss of -3.9%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 10.4.04 at $20.22 with a $15.71 stop. Continued to trade in a range between $20-25 for the next year, but finally began to show some life in late-2005, eventually reaching a high of $45.50 the week of 5.8.06. It slipped back a little to around $40 in late June, then immediately plunged below my stop at $34.74 the week of 7.10.06. Gain of 71.6%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 7.10.06 at $34.70 with a stop at $44.47. Drifted down for the rest of 2006, its low of $26.01 coming the first week of 2007, then it slowly clawed its way back up, eventually reaching my $32.96 stop the week of 4.2.07. Gain of 3.4%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.2.07 at $33.51 with a $27.73 stop. Following its usual pattern, it slowly but surely traded up to a high price $43.90 in October. then retraced its steps back down to my $35.89 stop the week of 1.7.08. Gain of 3.2%
  
6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 1.7.08 at $34.59 with my $42.34 stop. Rangebound between $30-35 all the way into late August, it finally began to feel the effects of the financial crisis in September, falling to a low of $19.00 the week of 10.6.08. But it really didn't get hit as hard as a lot of other stocks in the panic, and it wasn't nearly as volatile, so it didn't have to move up too far to meet my $27.44 stop the week of 4.27.09. Gain of 20.5%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $27.51 with $19.55 for a stop. This time it began moving right away, reaching $40 before the end of 2009 and $70 by the end of 2010. From a high of $73.99 earlier this month I think it has held up very well through the recent volatility, closing last week well above its $58.55 stop at $70.14. Gain of 155.0%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 6 | 85.7% | $11.35/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 14.3% | -$0.75/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 37.0% | $9.62/share

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK)

1. SHORT the week of 4.18.05 at $8.58 with my stop at $12.66. Drifted sideways in a narrow $8-10 range throughout the summer before dropping to a low of $5.64 the first week of November, then shot straight up through my $8.57 stop the week of 12.5.05. Loss of -17.6%




2. Reversed to LONG the week of 12.5.05 at $10.12 with a $6.91 stop. It slowly worked its way up to $15 in August 2006, then caught fire and doubled to $30 by the following June. It almost doubled again, reaching a high of $55.50 the last week of December 2007, then quickly faded back down to my $38.46 stop the week of 2.25.08. Gain of 264.4%

3. Reversed to SHORT the week of 2.25.08 at $36.88 with a stop at $53.65. Briefly traded down to $29.96 just two weeks later, but then jumped up to $40 in April. It moved sideways through May before triggering my $46.51 stop by just $0.01 the week of 6.16.08. Loss of -26.1%

4. Reversed to LONG the week of 6.16.08 at $46.52 with $33.52 for a stop. As I have said several times before on this blog, when a stop is tripped by just a few pennies, the following trade is probably going to be ugly. Traded up to $48.31 the following week, but then the wheels began to come off as the financial crisis spread, and by the week of 9.29.08 the stock had reached my $32.37 stop. Loss of -36.2%

5. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.22.08 at $29.70 with a $44.81 stop. Dropped like a rock through October and November, then briefly rebounded in December before slipping again, eventually falling to $12.41 the week of 3.2.09. Quickly traded back up to $20 in early April, then more or less waited there for my stop to come down from $23.87 to $21.70 the week of 5.4.09. Gain of 19.9%

6. Reversed to LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $23.80 with my stop at $15.11. Steadily traded up through the rest of 2009 and all of 2010, reaching a high of $94.70 the last week of February 2011. It has backtracked a little bit since, briefly dropping below $80 before closing last week at $83.31 with a stop at $67.15. Gain of 250.0%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 3 | 50.0% | $30.72/share avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 50.0% | -$9.44/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 75.7% | $10.70/share

Monday, March 28, 2011

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

I first blogged about Netflix almost three weeks ago, back on March 9th. That day it closed at $192.99, which was not far from its $180.33 stop, but well below its Valentine's Day high of $247.55. I thought we might see a short signal before the week was out. But we didn't.

So how has the stock traded since then? 



1. SHORT the week of 8.2.04 at $16.91 with a $30.66 stop. Traded as low as $8.91 the week of 3.21.05, but with relatively low volatility it didn't have to move up very far to trigger my $12.50 stop the week of 5.9.05. Gain of 15.6%

2. Reversed to LONG the week of 5.9.05 at $14.28 with a stop at $9.96. Traded all the way up to $33.12 the week of 4.24.06, but stalled and steadily traded back down past my $24.78 stop the week of 7.10.06. Gain of 69.4%

3. Reversed to SHORT the week of 7.10.06 at $24.19 with a $30.59 stop. Traded as low as $18.12 the week of 8.21.06, then quickly shot back up and through my $23.93 stop the week of 10.23.06. Loss of -14.1%

4. Reversed to LONG the week of 10.23.06 at $27.59 with my stop at $20.53. Traded up a little bit to $30 in the last week of November, then sideways in a narrow $27-30 range before finally moving down past my $23.72 stop the week of 1.8.07. Loss of -17.7%
  
5. Reversed to SHORT the week of 1.8.07 at $22.71 with a $28.57 stop. Traded as low as $15.62 the week of 7.23.07, but the stock was obviously (in hindsight) not in any kind of trending mode, and it eventually drifted above my $21.80 stop the week of 10.1.07. Gain of 3.1%

6. Reversed to LONG the week of 10.1.07 at $22.00 with a $16.82 stop. Traded as high as $40.90 the week of 4.14.08, then dipped just low enough to trip my $28.34 stop the week of 6.23.08. Gain of 21.5%

7. Reversed to SHORT the week of 6.23.08 at $26.74 with my stop set at $37.73. Traded in a tight range around $30 through September before dropping down to $17.90 the week of 10.27.08, then immediately reversed course and blew through my $29.84 stop the week of 12.29.08. Loss of -11.7%

8. Reversed to LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87 with a $19.25 stop. Traded as high as $247.55 the week of 2.14.11, but cooled off in early March, briefly dropping below $190. Last week it rebounded back to $230.01, and so far it's moving higher again today. The stop, due to the increased volatility, has actually dropped back a little to $174.89. Gain of 670.0%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 5 | 62.5% | $43.63/share avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 37.5% | -$3.80/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 92.0% | $25.84/share

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Shutterfly, Inc. (SFLY)

1. LONG the week of 6.11.07 at $22.00 with a $16.61 stop. Steadily traded up to $37.00 by the end of October, then immediately reversed course and plunged below $20, along the way taking out my $25.48 stop the week of 12.31.07. Loss of -5.7%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 12.31.07 at $20.75 with my stop at $32.81. Drifted downward all the way through 2008, eventually reaching a low of $5.62 the week of 1.20.09, then climbed very slowly back up to my $10.20 stop the week of 4.6.09. Gain of 49.3%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53 with $6.56 for my stop. Quickly traded up to $15 in July, then spent the rest of 2009 in a $15-18 range before doubling from $17 to $35 in 2010. This year started out flat and even a little down, but then it bounced up past $40 in late January and reached an all-time high of $49.28 this past Friday. Gain of 362.2%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 2 | 66.7% | $24.18/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 33.3% | -$1.25/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 135.3% | $15.70/share

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Cummins Inc. (CMI)

1. LONG the week of 5.19.03 at $7.05 with a $5.60 stop. Traded as high as $19.52 the week of 12.27.04, but ran out of gas, and being such a low volatility stock, it only had to trade down a little to trip my $16.67 stop the week of 3.28.05. Gain of 132.5%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 3.28.05 at $16.39 with my stop at $19.08. Traded sideways in a tight $15-17 range into July, then bounced up a couple of dollars, which was enough to reach my $17.38 stop the week of 7.11.05. Loss of -11.0%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 7.11.05 at $18.20 with a $15.57 stop. The stock was still in reaction mode, which is another way of saying "not trending," so after it briefly traded up to $21.91 in the middle of September, it didn't take long for it to work it's way back down to my stop at $18.54 the week of 10.17.05. Gain of 0.3%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 10.17.05 at $18.25 with a stop at $21.25. Dipped just $0.02 the following week, then slowly traded up just a little bit each week until my $20.93 stop was triggered the week of 11.28.05. Loss of -15.6%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 11.28.05 at $21.09 with an $18.44 stop. Continued to traded sideways into 2006, then gradually began moving up, reaching $32.88 in October.  But while it may have taken the stairs going up, it took the elevator back down, quickly dropping below my $27.92 stop the week of 1.3.07. Gain of 30.4%
  
6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 1.3.07 at $27.50 with a $31.35 stop. Traded down to $26.69 the following week, then quickly reversed direction and jumped past my $31.55 stop the week of 1.29.07. Loss of -20.0%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 1.29.07 at $33.01 with $28.06 for a stop. Steadily traded up to $40 by April, then finally began picking up speed, reaching a high of $72.96 the week of 7.28.08. But then the financial crisis brought it right back down to earth, driving it below my $46.01 stop the week of 9.22.08. Gain of 34.3%

8. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.22.08 at $44.32 with a $71.90 stop. Immediately crashed down to a low of $17.18 in the middle of November, then rebounded into a $25-30 range before moving up and over my $31.35 stop the week of 4.20.09. Gain of 26.3%

9. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $32.66 with my stop set at $18.82. Once again it traded sideways for a couple of months before picking up steam and quickly moving much higher. Since reaching $114.81 in the middle of January it has slowed down a little, briefly dipping below $100 a couple of weeks ago before closing yesterday at $104.54. The stop has moved up to $91.14. Gain of 220.1%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 6 | 66.7% | $18.44/share avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 33.3% | -$3.39/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 44.1% | $11.17/share

Friday, March 25, 2011

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH)

1. LONG the week of 9.2.03 at $9.69 with a $7.01 stop. Traded up to $14.29 the last week of January 2004, then edged down and slipped just below my $10.99 stop the week of 3.8.04. Gain of 13.0%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 3.8.04 at $10.95 with a stop at $14.15. Slowly drifted down to $9.80 by the middle of May, then moved sideways in a very tight $11-13 range for the rest of the summer, and finally climbed up past my $13.98 stop the week of 9.27.04. Loss of -37.7%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 9.27.04 at $15.08 with $11.52 for a stop. Traded up to $20 quickly, then leveled off and spent 2005 stuck in a $20-25 range. It picked up again in early 2006, ending the year around $40 and eventually reached a high of $47.77 the week of 2.20.07. From there, with such low volatility, it didn't take much of a pullback to trigger my $39.41 stop the week of 5.21.07. Gain of 151.0%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 5.21.07 at $37.85 with a $45.91 stop. Continued to trade sideways all the way into late summer 2008, and then the financial crisis took over, driving the stock down to a low of $14.38 the week of 11.17. 08. It had bounced back up to $20 by the end of December, and then up and over my $23.28 stop the week of 4.6.09. Gain of 37.6%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $23.62 with a $16.25 stop. Traded up steadily for the rest of 2009, ending the year around $45, and kept on moving all the way through 2010, eventually reaching $78.69 just two weeks ago. It backed off a little last week to $74.19, but it looks like it will close this week at a new high around $80. The stop is $67.18. Gain of 214.1%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | $22.21/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$4.13/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 75.6% | $16.94/share

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)

1. LONG the week of 5.8.06 at $7.85 with a stop at $4.98. Traded sideways in a tight $7-9 range for several months before picking up slightly towards the end of the year, reaching a high of $13.41 the second week of January 2007. After that it slid back down pretty quickly, just barely taking out my $9.58 stop the week of 3.12.07. Gain of 21.9%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 3.12.07 at $9.57 with a $12.46 stop. Something I've learned the hard/expensive way: in a reversal system, when a stock just barely trips a stop, more often than not, the ensuing trade is probably not going to go very well. Dropped down a few pennies to $9.28 a couple of weeks later, then bounced straight back up to my $11.78 stop the week of 4.23.07. Loss of -30.2%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.23.07 at $12.46 with a $9.00 stop. Started moving right away and never looked back, hitting $20 in July and $40 by the end of the year. From a high of $42.91 the week of 11.5.07 it traded sideways and down for the rest of the year before dropping like a rock and triggering my $27.39 stop the week of 1.14.08. Gain of 119.1%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 1.14.08 at $27.30 with a stop set at $42.91. Again, tripped my stop by just $0.09. Not a good sign. Traded down to $20.12 in the middle of March, then jumped past my $35.54 stop in a flash the week of 4.21.08. Loss of -33.2%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.28.08 at $36.37 with a $22.49 stop. Briefly traded up to $38.29 in early May, then got stuck in a $32-35 range for the rest of the summer. After dropping down into the high $20s in early September, the financial crisis finally took it down to my $24.07 stop the week of 9.29.08. Loss of -38.9%

6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.29.08 at $22.24 with my stop at $34.59. Stayed above $20 into November, then completely collapsed, hitting $10.05 the week of 12.8.08. It recovered slowly from its December lows, moving up slowly dollar by dollar, until it met my $17.93 stop the week of 3.23.09. Gain of 17.6%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32 with a stop placed at $11.34. More than doubled to $40 by September, then it really went on a tear, touching $100 the following September and finally $131.63 the week of 2.14.11. It has taken a slight breather the past few weeks, closing at $120.50 last Friday, but it's on the move again this week. I don't think we'll be needing it anytime soon, but just for the record, the stop is $104.13. Gain of 557.8%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 4 | 57.1% | $30.67/share avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 42.9% | -$8.70/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 87.7% | $13.80/share

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Boeing Co. (BA)

1. LONG the week of 6.2.03 at $29.59 with a $23.72 stop. Traded as high as $79.94 the week of 5.8.06, then drifted down over the summer, eventually dropping below my $66.84 stop the week of 9.5.06. Gain of 120.4%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.5.06 at $65.22 with a stop at $76.96. Briefly traded down to $64.62 the following week, then took off again, flying up and over my $75.49 stop the week of 11.6.06. Loss of -18.0%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 11.6.06 at $76.98 with my stop set at $65.37. Traded in a tight range around $80 into March, then quickly moved up and over $90 in May, reaching a high of $97.68 the week of 7.23.07. But it ran out of gas and slowly traded down past my $82.47 stop the week of 12.10.07. Gain of 4.8%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 12.10.07 at $80.66 with a $94.79 stop. Quickly traded down to $65.63 the second week of March 2008, then rebounded in a flash and when it closed the week of 5.12.08 at $78.44 it was within $1.11 of my $79.55 stop. But I didn't get reversed to long, and the stock soon began to slide with the rest of the market as the financial crisis heated up over the summer, eventually hitting a low of $27.40 the first week of March 2008. From there it bounced back up and over my $39.47 stop the week of 5.4.09. Gain of 45.9%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $43.65 with a $32.10 stop. By the first week of June it was already trading above $50, but it didn't move far from there for rest of the year. It finally broke out again in early 2010 and eventually reached a high of $74.29 in the middle of February 2011. Since then it has backed off a little, closing last week at $69.10. The stop has moved up to $63.94. Gain of 58.3%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | $25.44/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$11.76/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 42.3% | $18.00/share

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Acme Packet, Inc. (APKT)

Acme Packet was on my watch list for more than a year and a half following its IPO in October 2006. I waited and waited and waited (and waited some more) to get an entry signal, finally jumping in when it traded down from over $15 during October 2007 to less than $8 in early February 2008. 

1. SHORT the week of 2.4.08 at $8.16 with a $12.60 stop. Traded all the way down to $4.05 the second week of July, then rebounded just far enough to trigger my $7.36 stop the week of 9.15.08. A long signal, in the middle of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s? Really? Gain of 7.6%




2. Reversed to LONG the week of 9.15.08 at $7.54 with a stop at $4.42. Traded up one penny to $7.55 the following week, then straight back down to $4 again, along the way taking out my $4.28 stop the week of 10.6.08. Loss of -45.6%

3. Reversed to SHORT the week of 10.6.08 at $4.10 with a $7.59 stop. By early December it had traded down to $2.83, then it bounced around $4.50 through the spring before rising to meet my $5.35 stop the week of 3.9.09. Loss of -31.5%

4. Reversed to LONG the week of 3.9.09 at $5.39 with the stop at $2.89. Immediately began moving up, trading over $10 by June, and then the stock really took off. It moved above $20 in April, past $30 in August, and was over $50 by November, finally reaching a high of $76.95 the week of 2.22.11. Over the past month it has dropped back below $70, closing Friday at $66.58 with a stop at $53.57. Gain of 1,135.3%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 2 | 50.0% | $30.91/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 50.0% | -$2.37/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 266.4% | $14.27/share

Monday, March 21, 2011

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG)

1. LONG the week of 3.24.03 at $13.50 with a stop at $6.82. Traded all the way up to $139.50 the first week of February 2006, then quickly crashed down and through my $96.24 stop the week of 2.21.06. Gain of 602.3%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 2.21.06 at $94.81 with a $132.27 stop. Dropped down to $85.63 a couple of weeks later, then got right back on the elevator to the top floor, tripping my $121.73 stop the week of 4.24.06. Loss of -34.0%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.24.06 at $127.00 with an $89.02 stop. Bounced around $115 for the next three months before moving down a couple of steps to the $95 range, and then finally below my $94.82 stop the week of 8.21.06. Loss of -27.5%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 8.21.06 at $92.10 with a stop set at $123.34. Traded as low $86.20 the second week of January 2007, then took off on a good earnings report, jumping past my $109.34 stop the week of 1.29.07. Loss of -26.8%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 1.29.07 at $116.77 with a $91.97 stop. Wasted no time at all trading up to $150, then $200, and then $300, eventually reaching a high of $359.59 the week of 12.10.07. It traded down over the next couple of months before rallying back almost to its high again at $357.98 in early April, then completely ran out of gas and fell below my $282.24 stop the week of 6.23.08. Gain of 130.9%

6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 6.23.08 at $269.59 with a $338.79 stop. Held its ground through September, hanging around $300, then just collapsed in October as the financial crisis reached a fever pitch, bottoming out at $84.86 the week of 3.2.09. From there it recovered in a big hurry, reaching my $135.84 stop the week of 4.20.09. Gain of 44.3%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $150.24 with a stop placed all the way back at $98.60. High volatility = wide stops. Traded sideways for a couple of months over the summer, then took off in the fall, trading all the way up to a nose-bleeding price of $393.92 the week of 4.12.10. Then it simply retraced its steps through the summer and fall, finally crashing below my $291.27 stop the week of 8.23.10. Gain of 81.8%
  
8. Reversed to SHORT the week of 8.23.10 at $273.07 with a $351.99 stop. Gradually traded down to $246.05 by the middle of November, then jumped back up above $280 as earnings approached in January. I had a very bad feeling about being short going into earnings, but I stayed in the trade... and (surprise!) watched the stock fly past my $299.98 stop on a great earnings report the week of 1.18.11. Loss of -19.6%

9. Reversed to LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58 with a stop at $259.28. Traded up to $346.79 within a month, but has slowly worked its way downwards since, closing last week at $316.90. The stop has moved up to $290.45. Loss of -3.0%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 4 | 44.4% | $119.08/share avg.
Losing Trades: 5 | 55.6% | -$30.99/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 83.2% | $35.71/share

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Transocean Ltd. (RIG)

1. SHORT the week of 9.29.08 at $94.65 with a $134.29 stop. With the "help" of the financial crisis, it took less than three months for the price of the stock to be cut in half, trading all the way down to $41.95 the week of 12.22.08. It rebounded relatively quickly, trading back up to $60 by early February, but it flattened out after that and didn't reach my $67.87 stop until the week of 4.20.09. Gain of 27.9%


2. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $68.20 with a stop at $44.78. Traded as high as $94.88 the second week of 2010 before getting stuck in an $85-90 range that lasted into April, then plunged straight down on the heels of the BP disaster, immediately triggering my $75.68 stop the week of 4.26.10. Gain of 6.0%

3. Reversed to SHORT the week of 4.26.10 at $72.32 with a $95.77 stop. By early June it had fallen to a low of $41.88. Then it slowly began working its way back up, eventually rising to meet my $61.54 stop the week of 9.27.10. Gain of 11.0%

4. Reversed to LONG the week of 9.27.10 at $64.35 with the stop set at $47.86. Traded sideways between $65-70 for the rest of 2010, then began moving up in early 2011, trading as high as $85.98 the first week of March. Over the past couple of weeks it has dropped back below $80, closing Friday at $78.44. The stop is $69.14. Gain of 21.9%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 4 | 100.0% | $13.16/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 16.7% | $13.16/share

Saturday, March 19, 2011

Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT)

1. LONG the week of 3.17.03 at $21.99 with a stop at $17.67. Traded as high as $36.65 the week of 1.26.04, then sideways in a narrow $32-36 range over the next six months, and finally down through my $31.91 stop the week of 7.19.04. Gain of 43.8%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 7.19.04 at $31.62 with a $36.71 stop. Traded down slightly to $29.58 a couple of weeks later, then slowly back up to my $34.03 stop the week of 9.27.04. Loss of -10.1%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 9.27.04 at $34.81 with a $30.29 stop. Quickly moved up to $40, trading as high as $43.58 the week of 2.28.05, then just as quickly ran out of steam and traded down to my $38.39 stop the week of 4.11.05. Gain of 4.5%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 4.11.05 at $36.39 with a stop at $42.44. Dropped to $36.19 the following week, but that proved to be just a slight pause in the uptrend, and it jumped back up and above my $41.97 stop the week of 6.6.05. Loss of -16.8%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 6.6.05 at $42.50 with a $36.82 stop. Wasted no time trading up to $50 and then $60, reaching a high of $73.05 the week of 5.8.06, then gradually wound its way back down, tripping my $59.36 stop the week of 9.11.06. Gain of 37.7%

6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.11.06 at $58.52 with a $69.73 stop. Traded as low as $52.84 a little over a month later, then sideways for several months in a very tight $53-56 range, and finally straight up through my $60.36 stop the week of 2.12.07. Loss of 4.4%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 2.12.07 at $61.09 with a stop placed at $53.27. Traded as high as $79.21 the week of 7.16.07, then faded and fell below my $64.46 stop the week of 11.5.07. Gain of 5.4%
  
8. Reversed to SHORT the week of 11.5.07 at $64.41 with a $77.41 stop. Moved sideways all the way into March, then suddenly shot up past my $71.51 stop the week of 3.31.08. Loss of -11.2%

9. Reversed to LONG the week of 3.31.08 at $71.60 with a $58.56 stop. Traded up to $79.44 the week of 5.19.08, then bounced around $75 for a month before moving down another step to the $65 range, taking out my $66.26 stop the week of 6.30.08. Loss of -9.2%

10. Reversed to SHORT the week of 6.30.08 at $64.98 with a $77.85 stop. Hung around $60 into early September as the financial crisis was unfolding, then everybody bolted for the exits and the stock plunged all the way to $20.61 the week of 3.2.09. But it actually rebounded pretty quickly and was already back above my $35.28 stop by the week of 4.27.09. Gain of 44.9%

11. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $35.82 with a stop at $22.29. Traded as high as $105.86 the week of 2.14.11, and has held up very well since (much better than a lot of other stocks), closing yesterday at $105.06 with a $90.98 stop. Gain of 193.3%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 6 | 54.5% | $21.49/share avg.
Losing Trades: 5 | 45.5% | -$5.14/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 25.3% | $9.39/share

Friday, March 18, 2011

Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (DO)

1. LONG the week of 1.5.04 at $16.21 with a $13.67 stop. Traded sideways for most of 2004 before picking up steam late in the year, eventually trading as high as $73.82 the week of 5.8.06. But from there it took a nosedive, quickly triggering my $55.11 stop the week of 7.17.06. Gain of 222.5%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 7.17.06 at $52.27 with a stop at $69.22. Traded as low as $47.02 the week of 10.2.06, but gradually worked its way back up to my $62.85 stop the week of 12.11.06. Loss of -21.7%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 12.11.06 at $63.59 with a $50.79 stop. Again it traded sideways for several months before taking off in late April, trading as high as $122.13 the week of 5.19.08. Of course, right around then is when the financial crisis began heating up, and eventually that drove the stock below my $90.80 stop the week of 9.2.08. Gain of 40.6%
  
4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.2.08 at $89.39 with a $114.14 stop. Traded all the way down to $46.42 in the second week of January 2009, then rebounded just a little, trading in a $55-60 range through April, before finally surging up and through my $69.91 stop the week of 5.4.09. Gain of 19.1%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $72.30 with a $51.34 stop. Traded as high as $102.76 the week of 10.26.09, but ran out of gas and sputtered past my $84.91 stop the week of 3.15.10. Gain of 13.1%

6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 3.15.10 at $81.75 with a $97.85 stop. Traded as low as $53.92 the week of 6.7.10, when a lot of oil stocks were taking an absolute beating from the BP disaster, and it actually took quite a while for Diamond Offshore to recover, finally tripping my $69.94 stop the week of 1.3.11. Gain of 13.7%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 1.13.11 at $70.57 with a $57.65 stop. Traded as high as $80.15 the week of 2.28.11, but backed off a little the following week, closing at $74.11. The stop has moved up to $65.01. Gain of 5.0%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 6 | 85.7% | $17.19 avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 14.3% | -$11.32 avg.
Average: $13.11

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Cimarex Energy Co. (XEC)

1. LONG the week of 6.2.03 at $22.41 with an $18.68 stop. Traded up to $23.79 three weeks later, then slightly down and sideways between $19-21 for the rest of the summer, slipping just below my $19.27 stop the week of 9.22.03. Loss of -14.2%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.22.03 at $19.23 with an $23.06 stop. Traded down slightly to $18.93 the following week, but there was still no trend in place, so it didn't take long to move back up and through my $22.75 stop the week of 12.1.03. Loss of -28.5% 

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 12.1.03 at $24.72 with a $20.73 stop. Traded as high as $46.61 the week of 1.17.06, but ran out of gas and bounced around sideways over the next five months before dropping below my $37.96 stop the week of 6.5.06. Gain of 51.8%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 6.5.06 at $37.52 with a $46.18 stop. Traded as low as $31.84 the week of 10.2.06, then slowly back up in small steps, tripping my $37.18 stop the week of 4.16.07. Gain of 0.7%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.16.07 at $37.27 with a $33.42 stop. Traded sideways in a tight $35-40 range for the rest of 2007, then finally took off in early 2008, trading as high as $73.40 the week of 6.16.08. But as we all know, the financial crisis was just beginning to pick up speed, and this stock felt the effects sooner than many others, dropping like a rock and triggering my $51.71 stop the week of 7.28.08. Gain of 38.7%

6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 7.28.08 at $51.71 with a $68.85 stop. Traded as low as $15.21 the week of 3.2.09, then recovered and actually rebounded very quickly, hitting my $26.65 stop the week of 4.20.09. Gain of 48.4%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $26.67 with an $16.07 stop. Traded as high as $117.95 the week of 2.28.11, and has pulled back only slightly since, closing last week at $107.80 with a $98.75 stop. Gain of 304.2%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 5 | 71.4% | $26.73 avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 28.6% | -$4.34 avg.
Average: $17.86

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

We've talked about Mosaic (MOS) and Potash Corporation (POT) in previous posts, so let's go ahead and take a look at how CF Industries has traded since its IPO in August 2005.

1. LONG the week of 10.2.06 at $17.91 with a $14.99 stop. Traded as high as $170.97 the week of 6.16.08, but the financial crisis was just beginning to unfold, and it quickly traded back down and through my $97.76 stop the week of 9.22.08. Gain of 406.9%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.22.08 at $90.78 with a $164.45 stop. Wait, $164.45? Yes. Higher volatility means wider stops in this system. The stock has room to move without generating a lot of false signals. Traded as low as $37.29 less than a month later, then gradually upwards as markets stabilized, and finally past my $71.84 stop the week of 3.23.09. Gain of 19.9%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $72.76 with a $45.63 stop. Traded as high as $109.72 the week of 3.1.10, but stalled out and quickly reversed direction, trading below my $88.27 stop the week of 4.19.10. Gain of 16.7%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 4.19.10 at $84.88 with a $102.29 stop. Traded as low as $57.49 the week of 6.7.10, then caught fire and shot straight up through my $82.55 stop the week of 8.2.10. Gain of 0.8%
  
5. Reversed to LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21 with a $62.02 stop. Traded as high as $153.83 the week of 2.7.11, but has since traded down slightly, closing last week at $126.02. The stop is set at $113.34. Gain of 49.6%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 5 | 100% | $29.10 avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0% | -$0.00 avg.
Average: $29.10

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)

*Please note that I've adjusted for the 3:1 stock split that took place on 2.24.11.

1. LONG the week of 9.2.03 at $3.84 with a $3.41 stop. Traded as high as $12.47 the week of 8.15.05, then sideways and eventually down to my $10.34 stop the week of 9.26.05. Gain of 163.3%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.26.05 at $10.11 with a $12.17 stop. Traded as low as $7.90 the week of 11.28.05, then gradually upwards and past my $10.36 stop the week of 2.27.06. Loss of -5.0%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 2.27.06 at $10.62 with an $8.47 stop. Traded as high as $11.59 the week of 5.8.06, but with no trend in place it didn't take long for it to trade back down to my $9.05 stop the week of 6.5.06. Loss of -14.8%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 6.5.06 at $9.05 with an $11.53 stop. Traded as low as $8.58 the following week, then very slowly back up to my $10.84 stop the week of 9.5.06. Loss of -19.8%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 9.5.06 at $10.84 with a $9.15 stop. Traded as high as $79.68 the week of 6.16.08, then sideways for a month before turning down violently as the financial crisis unfolded, tripping my $53.81 stop the week of 9.2.08. Gain of 393.3%

6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.2.08 at $53.47 with a $76.33 stop. Traded as low as $15.71 the first week of December, but then a few people began to notice that there were a lot of bargains to be had, and it recovered to move back above my $29.15 stop the week of 4.27.09. Gain of 43.9%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $29.98 with a $18.48 stop. Traded as high as $40.20 a little over a month later, then sideways in a $30-32 range for the rest of the summer, and finally below my $29.80 stop the week of 9.28.09. Loss of -5.5%
  
8. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.28.09 at $28.33 with a $36.92 stop. Traded as low as $28.05 the following week, then very quickly back up to my $36.95 stop the week of 11.16.09. Loss of -34.4%

9. Reversed to LONG the week of 11.16.09 at $38.08 with a $28.88 stop. Traded as high as $42.67 the week of 3.15.10, but clearly (in hindsight) the stock had once again entered into a non-trending/reaction mode, and my $33.87 stop was triggered the week of 5.3.10. Loss of -12.7%

10. Reversed to SHORT the week of 5.3.10 at $33.25 with a $42.23 stop. Traded as low as $27.88 the week of 6.28.10, then gradually back up and through my $36.64 stop the week of 8.2.10. Loss of -13.7%

11. Reversed to LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80 with a $29.08 stop. Traded as high as $63.97 the week of 2.14.11, but like the rest of the market it has cooled off quite a bit since and closed last week less than a dollar above its $53.44 stop at $54.16. Gain of 43.3%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 4 | 36.4% | $22.19 avg.
Losing Trades: 7 | 63.6% | -$3.52 avg.
Average: $5.83

Monday, March 14, 2011

VMware, Inc. (VMW)

1. SHORT the week of 1.28.08 at $57.85 with a $102.22 stop. Yes, $102.22 is correct. High volatility means wide stops in this system, and this stock had an Average True Range (ATR) of 17.28 in the weeks leading up to the initial signal to sell short. Traded as low as $17.25 the week of 11.17.08, then sideways and slowly upwards, finally triggering my $30.17 stop the week of 4.13.09. Gain of 46.9%


2. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.13.09 at $30.70 with a $19.85 stop. Traded as high as $97.61 the week of 1.18.11, but has traded down significantly since an earnings miss in late January, closing last week just barely above its $79.76 stop at $83.02. Gain of 170.4%

Are we going to get a short signal this week?
 
Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 2 | 100% | $39.74 avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0% | $0.00 avg.
Average: $39.74


 

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Mosaic Co. (MOS)

1. SHORT the week of 12.13.04 at $17.15 with a $20.66 stop. Traded as low as $12.36 the week of 5.23.05, then moved slowly upwards, just barely reaching my $16.27 stop the week of 7.5.05. Gain of 5.0%

2. Reversed to LONG the week of 7.5.05 at $16.29 with a $13.04 stop. Traded as high as $17.99 the week of 8.8.05, but (in hindsight) there was clearly no trend in place, and it drifted below my $15.13 stop the week of 10.3.05. Loss of -10.0%

3. Reversed to SHORT the week of 10.3.05 at $14.66 with a $17.64 stop. Traded as low as $12.50 the week of 11.14.05, then sideways and slightly upwards, triggering my $15.25 stop the week of 1.3.06. Loss of -7.0%

4. Reversed to LONG the week of 1.3.06 at $15.68 with a $13.15 stop. Traded as high as $163.25 the week of 6.16.08, but the bottom quickly fell out, as it did for so many stocks in mid- to late-2008, and it crashed into my $105.45 stop the week of 9.2.08. Gain of 502.8%
  
5. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.2.08 at $94.52 with a $144.48 stop. Traded as low as $21.94 a little over two months later, then rebounded quickly from the depths of the "financial crisis" to end 2008 near $40. Still, it didn't move above my $43.69 stop until the week of 5.4.09. Gain of 51.9%

6. Reversed to LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $45.45 with a $27.24 stop. Traded as high as $68.28 the week of 1.11.10, then sideways and gradually back down to my $54.06 stop the week of 4.26.10. Gain of 12.5%

7. Reversed to SHORT the week of 4.26.10 at $51.14 with a $63.56 stop. Traded as low as $37.68 the week of 6.28.10, then straight back up and eventually through my $52.85 stop the week of 8.16.10. Loss of -10.8%

8. Reversed to LONG the week of 8.16.10 at $56.64 with a $41.86 stop. Traded as high as $89.24 the week of 2.14.11, but has since traded down along with the rest of the market and closed last week at $76.28. The stop has moved up to $68.87. Gain of 34.7%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 5 | 62.5% | $30.82 avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 37.5% | -$2.72 avg.
Average: $18.24

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Aruba Networks, Inc. (ARUN)

1. LONG the week of 5.21.07 at $17.75 with a $12.72 stop. Traded as low as $23.85 the week of 7.16.07, then sideways and down over the rest of the summer, finally trading below my $15.90 stop the week of 11.5.07. Loss of 12.5%

2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 11.5.07 at $15.53 with a $23.05 stop. Traded as low as $1.85 (!) the week of 11.17.08, around the time when so many stocks were hitting their lowest "financial crisis" lows, but it rebounded slowly and eventually tripped my $3.79 stop the week of 4.13.09. Gain of 72.1%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.13.09 at $4.33 with a $2.45 stop. Traded as high as $32.78 the week of 2.28.11, and only backed off a little this past week, closing at $31.88. The new stop is $22.15. Gain of 636.3%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 2 | 66.7% | $19.38 avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 33.3% | -$2.22 avg.
Average: $12.18

Friday, March 11, 2011

Trading Nebulosity: Salesforce.com (CRM)

1. LONG the week of 9.13.04 at $15.67 with a $9.27 stop. Traded as high as $22.70 the week of 11.1.04, then down and mostly sideways, finally dropping below my $15.47 stop the week of 1.10.05. Loss of -4.3%

2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 1.10.05 at $15.00 with an $20.85 stop. Traded as low as $12.96 the week of 2.7.05, and was still below my entry price 3 months later, then it jumped straight up and through my $17.65 stop the week of 5.16.05. Loss of -18.9% 

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 5.16.05 at $18.49 with a $13.24 stop. Traded as high as $42.99 the week of 1.30.06, then ran out of steam and slowly faded beneath my $33.06 stop the week of 5.8.06. Gain of 68.7%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 5.8.06 at $31.20 with a $40.12 stop. Traded as low as $21.64 the week of 7.10.06, then just like my first short trade it moved sideways before exploding upwards past my $30.64 stop the week of 8.14.06. Loss of -5.0%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 8.14.06 at $32.85 with a $21.67 stop. Traded as high as $75.21 the week of 6.23.08, then drifted sideways and gradually lower, triggering my $52.16 stop the week of 9.22.08. Gain of 54.2%

6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.22.08 at $50.65 with a $71.15 stop. Traded as low as $20.82 just two months later when the world was pretty much coming to an end, but it turns out the world actually did not come to an end, and eventually the stock rebounded to hit my $35.28 stop the week of 3.30.09. Gain of 35.9%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27 with an $23.04 stop. Traded as high as $151.26 the week of 12.6.10, but mostly sideways and slightly down since, finishing last week at $129.97. The stop is $114.69. Gain of 248.7%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 4 | 57.1% | $34.15 avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 42.9% | -$1.94 avg.
Average: $18.68