Sunday, October 23, 2011

Out of Crocs with only a 505% gain...

At the end of July this stock was trading at $31.33 and I was sitting on a 1,143.4% gain. 

I have to say, this is one of those times when the glass looks half empty.

Crocs (CROX): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Stopped out Friday afternoon at $15.25. The percentage gain on this trade was 505.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $12.73/$2.05 = 6.22. 

And then there were four...

- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $392.87 with a $333.35 stop. My new stop for the coming week will be $330.61. The percentage gain on this trade is 238.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $276.88/$31.60 = 8.76.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $415.63 with a $306.75 stop. The stop for this week is $311.83. The percentage gain on this trade is 27.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $89.05/$67.30 = 1.32.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 
- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $169.50 with a $127.34 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $129.68. The percentage gain on this trade is 33.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $42.82/$23.49 = 1.82.

- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed Friday at $102.94 with a $69.39 stop. My stop for the coming week is basically unchanged at $69.44. The percentage gain on this trade is 332.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $79.14/$8.69 = 9.11.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

The Short List

Last week was actually very kind to the (very) few stocks that I'm still holding. 

Naturally, with earnings reports for both coming out this Tuesday, the two stocks I'll be watching the closest this week will be Apple and Intuitive Surgical.

- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $422.00 with a $326.98 stop. My new stop for the coming week will be $333.35. The percentage gain on this trade is 263.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $306.01/$31.60 = 9.68.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $393.38 with a $305.84 stop. The stop for the this week is $306.75. The percentage gain on this trade is 20.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $66.80/$67.30 = 0.99.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 
- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $165.26 with a $124.81 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $127.34. The percentage gain on this trade is 30.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $38.58/$23.49 = 1.64.

- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed Friday at $106.36 with a $62.66 stop. My stop for the coming week jumps all the way up to $69.39. The percentage gain on this trade is 346.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $82.56/$8.69 = 9.50.

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $26.97 with an $18.35 stop. The new stop is going to be $19.21. The percentage gain on this trade is 970.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $24.45/$2.05 = 11.95.  

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Next Stop, All Cash? Part 2

Two weeks ago I posted that it looked like a quite week ahead.

Boy was I ever wrong.

Stopped out of Potash Corporation that very week, and then CF Industries, Wynn Resorts, and Baidu this past week.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Stopped out last Friday afternoon at $45.89. The percentage gain on this trade was 21.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $8.09/$8.72 = 0.93.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Stopped out at $123.39. The percentage gain on this trade was 46.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $39.18/$22.19 = 1.77.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Stopped out Friday at $115.08. The percentage gain on this trade was 212.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $78.20/$21.60 = 3.62.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Stopped out at $106.91. The percentage gain on this trade was 483.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $88.59/$6.98 = 12.69.

There's not much left now...

Apple (AAPL): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $400.50 with a $323.84 stop. My new stop for the coming week will be $328.70. The percentage gain on this trade is 245.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $284.51/$31.60 = 9.00.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $364.28 with a $305.35 stop. The stop for the this week is $306.28. The percentage gain on this trade is 11.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $37.70/$67.30 = 0.56.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 
- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $155.46 with a $128.25 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $126.52. The percentage gain on this trade is 22.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $28.78/$23.49 = 1.23.

- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed Friday at $93.16 with a $65.72 stop. My stop for the coming week will drop by one dollar to $64.72. The percentage gain on this trade is 291.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $69.36/$8.69 = 7.98.

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $23.68 with a $19.95 stop. The new stop is going to be $19.07. The percentage gain on this trade is 839.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $21.16/$2.05 = 10.34.

Of course, this list would be just a little longer if I'd pulled the trigger on the following trades (too bad I didn't):

- LONG signal the week of 3.30.09 at $5.10 (split adjusted). My stop would have been $2.29, so the risk was $2.81. Closed Friday at $48.69 with a $41.04 stop. The new stop going forward would be $40.18. The percentage gain on this trade would be 854.7% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $43.59/$2.81 = 15.49.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR):
- LONG signal the week of 9.7.10 at $34.19. The initial stop would have been $23.51, so the risk was $10.68. Closed Friday at $92.94 with a $69.45 stop. The stop for this week will be $67.35. The percentage gain on this trade would currently stand at 171.8% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $58.75/$10.68 = 5.50.

Mastercard (MA):
- LONG signal the week of 10.18.10 at $242.64. My stop would have been at $202.75, so the risk was $39.89. Closed Friday at $317.16 with a $260.66 stop. The stop for the coming week will be $259.50. The percentage gain on this trade would be 30.7% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $74.52/$39.89 = 1.87.

Amazon (AMZN):
- LONG signal the week of 8.30.10 at $138.79. My stop would have been $108.64, so the risk was $30.15. Closed Friday at $216.23 with a $178.69 stop. The stop for the coming week will be $178.52. The percentage gain on this trade would be 55.8% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $77.44/$30.15 = 2.57.

I never pulled the trigger on any of these four trades, but I do feel compelled to mention them here simply because they are the only other long signals that I currently have among all of the hundreds of stocks that I follow. Everything else is out and trading a long way from a buy signal.