Sunday, October 23, 2011

Out of Crocs with only a 505% gain...

At the end of July this stock was trading at $31.33 and I was sitting on a 1,143.4% gain. 

I have to say, this is one of those times when the glass looks half empty.

Crocs (CROX): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Stopped out Friday afternoon at $15.25. The percentage gain on this trade was 505.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $12.73/$2.05 = 6.22. 

And then there were four...

- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $392.87 with a $333.35 stop. My new stop for the coming week will be $330.61. The percentage gain on this trade is 238.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $276.88/$31.60 = 8.76.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $415.63 with a $306.75 stop. The stop for this week is $311.83. The percentage gain on this trade is 27.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $89.05/$67.30 = 1.32.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 
- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $169.50 with a $127.34 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $129.68. The percentage gain on this trade is 33.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $42.82/$23.49 = 1.82.

- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed Friday at $102.94 with a $69.39 stop. My stop for the coming week is basically unchanged at $69.44. The percentage gain on this trade is 332.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $79.14/$8.69 = 9.11.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

The Short List

Last week was actually very kind to the (very) few stocks that I'm still holding. 

Naturally, with earnings reports for both coming out this Tuesday, the two stocks I'll be watching the closest this week will be Apple and Intuitive Surgical.

- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $422.00 with a $326.98 stop. My new stop for the coming week will be $333.35. The percentage gain on this trade is 263.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $306.01/$31.60 = 9.68.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $393.38 with a $305.84 stop. The stop for the this week is $306.75. The percentage gain on this trade is 20.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $66.80/$67.30 = 0.99.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 
- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $165.26 with a $124.81 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $127.34. The percentage gain on this trade is 30.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $38.58/$23.49 = 1.64.

- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed Friday at $106.36 with a $62.66 stop. My stop for the coming week jumps all the way up to $69.39. The percentage gain on this trade is 346.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $82.56/$8.69 = 9.50.

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $26.97 with an $18.35 stop. The new stop is going to be $19.21. The percentage gain on this trade is 970.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $24.45/$2.05 = 11.95.  

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Next Stop, All Cash? Part 2

Two weeks ago I posted that it looked like a quite week ahead.

Boy was I ever wrong.

Stopped out of Potash Corporation that very week, and then CF Industries, Wynn Resorts, and Baidu this past week.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Stopped out last Friday afternoon at $45.89. The percentage gain on this trade was 21.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $8.09/$8.72 = 0.93.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Stopped out at $123.39. The percentage gain on this trade was 46.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $39.18/$22.19 = 1.77.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Stopped out Friday at $115.08. The percentage gain on this trade was 212.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $78.20/$21.60 = 3.62.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Stopped out at $106.91. The percentage gain on this trade was 483.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $88.59/$6.98 = 12.69.

There's not much left now...

Apple (AAPL): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $400.50 with a $323.84 stop. My new stop for the coming week will be $328.70. The percentage gain on this trade is 245.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $284.51/$31.60 = 9.00.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $364.28 with a $305.35 stop. The stop for the this week is $306.28. The percentage gain on this trade is 11.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $37.70/$67.30 = 0.56.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 
- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $155.46 with a $128.25 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $126.52. The percentage gain on this trade is 22.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $28.78/$23.49 = 1.23.

- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed Friday at $93.16 with a $65.72 stop. My stop for the coming week will drop by one dollar to $64.72. The percentage gain on this trade is 291.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $69.36/$8.69 = 7.98.

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $23.68 with a $19.95 stop. The new stop is going to be $19.07. The percentage gain on this trade is 839.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $21.16/$2.05 = 10.34.

Of course, this list would be just a little longer if I'd pulled the trigger on the following trades (too bad I didn't):

- LONG signal the week of 3.30.09 at $5.10 (split adjusted). My stop would have been $2.29, so the risk was $2.81. Closed Friday at $48.69 with a $41.04 stop. The new stop going forward would be $40.18. The percentage gain on this trade would be 854.7% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $43.59/$2.81 = 15.49.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR):
- LONG signal the week of 9.7.10 at $34.19. The initial stop would have been $23.51, so the risk was $10.68. Closed Friday at $92.94 with a $69.45 stop. The stop for this week will be $67.35. The percentage gain on this trade would currently stand at 171.8% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $58.75/$10.68 = 5.50.

Mastercard (MA):
- LONG signal the week of 10.18.10 at $242.64. My stop would have been at $202.75, so the risk was $39.89. Closed Friday at $317.16 with a $260.66 stop. The stop for the coming week will be $259.50. The percentage gain on this trade would be 30.7% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $74.52/$39.89 = 1.87.

Amazon (AMZN):
- LONG signal the week of 8.30.10 at $138.79. My stop would have been $108.64, so the risk was $30.15. Closed Friday at $216.23 with a $178.69 stop. The stop for the coming week will be $178.52. The percentage gain on this trade would be 55.8% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $77.44/$30.15 = 2.57.

I never pulled the trigger on any of these four trades, but I do feel compelled to mention them here simply because they are the only other long signals that I currently have among all of the hundreds of stocks that I follow. Everything else is out and trading a long way from a buy signal.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Rounding Up The Usual Suspects

No trades over the last couple of weeks.  

Apple, Intuitive Surgical, Precision Castparts, Deckers Outdoor, and Crocs have all continued to rebound quite nicely since mid-August, while CF Industries has cooled off just a little bit over the past couple of weeks.

Nothing on my radar screen, and none of the stocks that I'm still holding are trading anywhere near their stops... looks like another quiet week ahead.

- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $400.50 with a $323.84 stop. My new stop for the coming week will be $328.70. The percentage gain on this trade is 245.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $284.51/$31.60 = 9.00.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $390.54 with a $311.31 stop. The stop for the this week is $309.73. The percentage gain on this trade is 19.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $63.96/$67.30 = 0.95.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 
- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $171.49 with a $127.61 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $131.03. The percentage gain on this trade is 35.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $44.81/$23.49 = 1.91.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed the week at $175.15 with a $135.85 stop. My stop for this week moves up again to $138.26. The percentage gain on this trade is 108.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $90.94/$22.19 = 4.10.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed the week at $152.12 with a $119.74 stop. The new stop will be $122.07. The percentage gain on this trade is 312.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $115.24/$21.60 = 5.34.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed Friday at $146.95 with a $110.00 stop. My stop for this week moves up slightly to $113.02. The percentage gain on this trade is 702.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $128.63/$6.98 = 18.43.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $56.08 with a $47.45 stop. The new stop for the coming week is $48.33. The percentage gain on this trade is 48.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $18.28/$8.72 = 2.10.

- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed Friday at $100.71 with a $65.09 stop. My stop for the coming week will be more or less unchanged at $65.49. The percentage gain on this trade is 323.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $76.91/$8.69 = 8.85.

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $28.28 with a $20.07 stop. The new stop drops a few pennies to $19.96. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,022.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $25.76/$2.05 = 12.59.

Sunday, September 4, 2011

Holding Pattern

Friday notwithstanding, the last couple of weeks have actually been pretty kind to the few stocks I'm still holding. Intuitive Surgical rebounded nicely, and CF Industries was up around 24% for the month of August alone.

No changes/trades from my last post a couple of weeks ago:

- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $374.05 with a $321.78 stop. My new stop for the coming week will be $323.32. The percentage gain on this trade is 222.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $258.06/$31.60 = 8.17.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $370.63 with a $313.30 stop. The stop for next week is $312.67. The percentage gain on this trade is 13.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $44.05/$67.30 = 0.65.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed the week at $181.89 with a $132.35 stop. My stop for next week will be $133.53. The percentage gain on this trade is 116.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $97.68/$22.19 = 4.40.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 
- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $156.10 with a $128.35 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $127.90. The percentage gain on this trade is 23.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $29.42/$23.49 = 1.25.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed the week at $147.90 with a $119.58 stop. The new stop will be $118.67. The percentage gain on this trade is 301.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $111.02/$21.60 = 5.14.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed Friday at $140.45 with a $107.93 stop. The stop for this week moves up slightly to $109.21. The percentage gain on this trade is 667.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $122.13/$6.98 = 17.50.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $58.42 with a $46.41 stop. The new stop for next week is $47.16. The percentage gain on this trade is 54.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $20.62/$8.72 = 2.36.

Crocs (CROX): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $25.40 with a $19.62 stop. The new stop holds relatively steady at $19.66. The percentage gain on this trade is 907.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $22.88/$2.05 = 11.18.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed yesterday at $85.90 with a $64.30 stop. The stop for this coming week is $65.86. The percentage gain on this trade is 260.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $62.10/$8.69 = 7.15.

Saturday, August 20, 2011

Will the last stock out please turn off all the lights?

This party is just about over.

No trades in the prior week, but this sure was a busy week. I closed out five trades yesterday. 

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Stopped out yesterday at $205.21. The percentage gain on this trade was 587.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $175.34/$10.62 = 16.51.
 
- LONG the week of 7.11.11 at $597.62. With a stop at $500.50 the risk was $97.12. Stopped out yesterday afternoon at $490.92. The percentage loss on this trade was -17.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$106.70/$97.12 = -1.10.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Stoppes out at $111.00. The percentage gain on this trade was 197.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $73.73/$14.23 = 5.18.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Stopped out at $76.76 yesterday at the close. The percentage loss on this trade was -20.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$20.05/$22.19 = -0.90.

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Stopped out yesterday at $41.53. The percentage gain on this trade was 294.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $31.00/$3.97 = 7.81.

Of the stocks that I'm still holding, I'd like to say that both Apple and CF Industries at least still have pretty good cushions, but with the way things are going, probably none of them are truly safe.

Apple (AAPL): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $356.03 with a $327.19 stop. The new stop for the coming week will be $324.22. The percentage gain on this trade is 206.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $240.04/$31.60 = 7.60.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $329.49 with a $316.27 stop. The stop for next week is $316.79. The percentage gain on this trade is 0.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $2.91/$67.30 = 0.04.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed yesterday at $164.81 with a $117.97 stop. My stop for next week will be $120.10. The percentage gain on this trade is 95.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $80.60/$22.19 = 3.63.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 
- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $142.45 with a $132.61 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $130.81. The percentage gain on this trade is 12.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $15.77/$23.49 = 0.67.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed the week at $131.34 with a $120.45 stop. The new stop will be $118.16. The percentage gain on this trade is 256.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $94.46/$21.60 = 4.37.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed yesterday at $126.98 with a $111.96 stop. The stop for this week moves down slightly to $106.85. The percentage gain on this trade is 593.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $108.66/$6.98 = 15.57.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $50.65 with a $47.14 stop. The new stop for next week is $46.97. The percentage gain on this trade is 34.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $12.85/$8.72 = 1.47.

Crocs (CROX): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $23.33 with a $21.32 stop. The new stop is $19.97. The percentage gain on this trade is 825.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $20.81/$2.05 = 10.17.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed yesterday at $73.28 with a $69.50 stop. The stop for this coming week is $64.41. The percentage gain on this trade is 207.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $49.48/$8.69 = 5.70.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Next Stop, All Cash?

I was knocked out of four more stocks last week...

Boeing (BA): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $43.65. I used $32.10 for my stop, so the risk was $11.55. Closed last week at $62.57, well below my $69.11 stop. The percentage gain on this trade was 43.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $19.10/$11.55 = 1.65.

Diamond Offshore (DO):
- LONG the week of 1.3.11 at $70.57. Using $57.65 for my stop, the risk was $12.92. Closed last week at $62.24, not even close to my $67.35 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -11.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$8.33/$12.92 = -0.64.

Citrix Systems (CTXS): 
- LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $27.51. My stop was $19.55, so that makes the risk $7.96. Closed last week below my $69.09 stop at $64.41. The percentage gain on this trade was 134.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $36.90/$7.96 = 4.64.

Joy Global (JOYG): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $29.80. My stop was set at $17.74, so my R = $12.06. Closed last week at $79.56, just $0.53 below my $80.09 stop. The percentage gain on this trade was 167.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $49.76/$12.06 = 4.13.

... and with the way things are going, I could very easily be out of Intuitive Surgical, Netflix, Precision Castparts, Salesforce.com, Potash Corporation, VMWare, and Shutterfly by the end of this week. 

Updates on the positions I'm still holding:

Apple (AAPL): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $373.62 with a $337.31 stop. The new stop for this week is $329.48. The percentage gain on this trade is 222.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $257.63/$31.60 = 8.15.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $358.57 with a $334.85 stop. The new stop for this week is $319.56. The percentage gain on this trade is 9.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $31.99/$67.30 = 0.48.

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Closed last week at $241.11 with a $227.37 stop. The stop for this week drops slightly to $222.87. The percentage gain on this trade is 707.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $211.24/$10.62 = 19.90.

- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $149.30 with a $140.30 stop. The new stop for this week is $135.84. The percentage gain on this trade is 17.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $22.62/$23.49 = 0.96.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed last week at $139.91 with a $130.41 stop. The stop for this week is $124.49. The percentage gain on this trade is 279.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $103.03/$21.60 = 4.77.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed Friday at $146.66 with a $122.64 stop. The stop for the week is $118.86. The percentage gain on this trade is 74.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $62.45/$22.19 = 2.81.

- LONG the week of 7.11.11 at $597.62. With a stop at $500.50 the risk was $97.12. Closed Friday at $579.04 with a $526.27 stop. The new stop for this week is $516.48. The percentage loss on this trade is -3.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$18.58/$97.12 = -0.19.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Closed last week at $135.69 with a $126.28 stop. The stop for this week is $122.49. The percentage gain on this trade is 264.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $98.42/$14.23 = 6.92.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed last week at $140.99 with a $122.80 stop. The stop for this week moves down to $116.05. The percentage gain on this trade is 669.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $122.67/$6.98 = 17.58.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $53.09 with a $50.00 stop. The new stop for this week is $47.89. The percentage gain on this trade is 40.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $15.29/$8.72 = 1.75.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed last week at $91.12 with a $77.12 stop. The stop for this week is $72.60. The percentage gain on this trade is 282.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $67.32/$8.69 = 7.75.

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $28.64 with a $24.10 stop. The new stop for this week is $22.68. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,036.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $26.12/$2.05 = 12.76.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Closed last week at $87.28 with an $84.03 stop. The stop for this week falls to $79.73. The percentage loss on this trade is -9.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$9.53/$22.19 = -0.43.

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Closed Friday at $46.96 with a $45.56 stop. The stop for the week is $43.70. The percentage gain on this trade is 346.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $36.43/$3.97 = 9.17.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Out of Acme Packet with a 993% gain

Last week was a bad week. Crox (+10.9% for the week), Deckers Outdoor (+2.9%), and Baidu (+2.0%) were my lone bright spots. Everything else I own was down.

But as bad as it was, there was actually only one change to my portfolio: I was stopped out of Acme Packet Friday afternoon at the close.

- LONG the week of 3.9.09 at $5.39. Placing my stop at $2.89 the R was just $2.50. Closed Friday at $58.92, just $0.52 below its $59.44 stop. The percentage gain on this trade was 993.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $60.31/$2.50 = 21.42.

All in all... not a bad trade.

On to the updates. 
 
Two stocks I'll be watching very closely this week are Boeing and Diamond Offshore, trading just $1.36 and $0.48 away from their respective stops. 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $390.48 with a $338.23 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $337.31. The percentage gain on this trade is 236.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $274.49/$31.60 = 8.69.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $400.55 with a $333.33 stop. The new stop for the coming week is $334.85. The percentage gain on this trade is 22.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $73.97/$67.30 = 1.10.

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Closed last week at $265.99 with a $233.09 stop. The stop for this week drops slightly to $227.37. The percentage gain on this trade is 709.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $236.12/$10.62 = 22.24.

- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $161.38 with a $141.23 stop. The new stop for this week is $140.30. The percentage gain on this trade is 27.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $34.70/$23.49 = 1.48.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed last week at $153.68 with a $132.39 stop. The stop for this week will be $130.41. The percentage gain on this trade is 316.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $116.80/$21.60 = 5.41.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed Friday at $155.32 with a $121.85 stop. The stop for the coming week is $122.64. The percentage gain on this trade is 84.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $71.11/$22.19 = 3.21.

- LONG the week of 7.11.11 at $597.62. With a stop at $500.50 the risk was $97.12. Closed Friday at $603.69 with a $523.19 stop. The new stop for this week moves up to $526.27. The percentage gain on this trade is 1.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $6.07/$97.12 = 0.06.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Closed last week at $144.71 with a $126.71 stop. The stop for this week will be $126.28. The percentage gain on this trade is 288.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $107.44/$14.23 = 7.55.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed last week at $157.07 with a $120.83 stop. The stop for this week moves up to $122.80. The percentage gain on this trade is 757.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $138.75/$6.98 = 19.88.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $57.81 with a $50.67 stop. The new stop for this week is $50.00. The percentage gain on this trade is 52.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $20.01/$8.72 = 2.29.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed last week at $99.25 with a $76.61 stop. The stop for this week will be $77.12. The percentage gain on this trade is 317.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $75.45/$8.69 = 8.69.

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $31.33 with a $22.38 stop. The new stop for this week jumps to $24.10. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,143.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $28.81/$2.05 = 14.08.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Closed last week at $100.34 with an $84.90 stop. The stop for this week will be $84.03. The percentage gain on this trade is 3.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $3.53/$22.19 = 0.16.

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Closed Friday at $54.40 with a $46.62 stop. The stop for the coming week is $45.56. The percentage gain on this trade is 416.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $43.87/$3.97 = 11.05.

Boeing (BA): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $43.65. I used $32.10 for my stop, so the risk was $11.55. Closed last week at $70.47 with a $69.30 stop. The new stop will be $69.11. The percentage gain on this trade is 61.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $26.82/$11.55 = 2.32.

Citrix Systems (CTXS): 
- LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $27.51. My stop was $19.55, so that makes the risk $7.96. Closed last week at $72.04 with a $69.01 stop. The new stop is $69.09. The percentage gain on this trade is 161.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $44.53/$7.96 = 5.59.

Diamond Offshore (DO):
- LONG the week of 1.3.11 at $70.57. Using $57.65 for my stop, the risk was $12.92. Closed last week at $70.79 with a $67.74 stop. The stop for this week will be $67.35. The percentage loss on this trade is -3.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$2.74/$12.92 = -0.21.

Joy Global (JOYG): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $29.80. My stop was set at $17.74, so my R = $12.06. Closed last week at $93.92 with an $81.79 stop. The stop for this week is $80.09. The percentage gain on this trade is 215.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $64.12/$12.06 = 5.32.

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Trading Without a Net

Honestly, trading with no short positions makes me feel like a tightrope walker working without a net.

At least the Google trade we talked about last week is off to a pretty good start.

Of course, it's only been a week...

But we'll go ahead and add it to the mix along with a quick update on all of our other open positions.
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $393.30 with a $316.35 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week jumps all the way to $338.23. The percentage gain on this trade is 239.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $277.31/$31.60 = 8.77.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $405.10 with a $325.81 stop. The new stop for the coming week is $333.33. The percentage gain on this trade is 24.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $78.52/$67.30 = 1.17.

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Closed last week at $276.58 with a $232.13 stop. The stop for this week will be $233.21. The percentage gain on this trade is 825.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $246.71/$10.62 = 23.24.

- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $165.40 with a $142.14 stop. The new stop for this week is $141.23. The percentage gain on this trade is 30.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $38.72/$23.49 = 1.65.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed last week at $165.25 with a $131.73 stop. The stop for this week will be $132.39. The percentage gain on this trade is 348.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $128.37/$21.60 = 5.94.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed Friday at $160.25 with a $116.32 stop. The stop for the coming week is $121.85. The percentage gain on this trade is 90.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $76.04/$22.19 = 3.43.

Google (GOOG): 
- LONG the week of 7.11.11 at $597.62. With a stop at $500.50 the risk was $97.12. Closed Friday at $618.23, and the stop for the coming week moves up to $523.19. The percentage gain on this trade is 3.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $20.61/$97.12 = 0.21.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Closed last week at $150.41 with a $128.65 stop. The stop for this week will be $126.71. The percentage gain on this trade is 303.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $113.14/$14.23 = 7.95.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed last week at $154.00 with a $115.40 stop. The stop for this week moves up to $120.83. The percentage gain on this trade is 740.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $135.68/$6.98 = 19.44.

- LONG the week of 3.9.09 at $5.39. Placing my stop at $2.89 the R was just $2.50. Closed Friday at $65.70 with a $60.56 stop. The new stop for the coming week will be $59.44. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,118.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $60.31/$2.50 = 24.13.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $61.64 with a $50.70 stop. The new stop for this week is $50.67. The percentage gain on this trade is 63.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $23.84/$8.72 = 2.73.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed last week at $96.42 with a $75.94 stop. The stop for this week will be $76.61. The percentage gain on this trade is 305.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $72.62/$8.69 = 8.36.

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $28.24 with a $21.89 stop. The new stop for this week is going to be $22.38. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,020.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $25.72/$2.05 = 12.57.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Closed last week at $106.72 with an $84.99 stop. The stop for this week drops slightly to $84.90. The percentage gain on this trade is 10.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $9.91/$22.19 = 0.45.

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Closed Friday at $60.26 with a $45.44 stop. The stop for the coming week is $46.62. The percentage gain on this trade is 472.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $49.73/$3.97 = 12.52.

Boeing (BA): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $43.65. I used $32.10 for my stop, so the risk was $11.55. Closed last week at $72.67 with a $69.67 stop. The new stop will be $69.30. The percentage gain on this trade is 66.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $29.02/$11.55 = 2.51.

Citrix Systems (CTXS): 
- LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $27.51. My stop was $19.55, so that makes the risk $7.96. Closed last week at $75.27 with a $69.00 stop. The new stop is $69.01. The percentage gain on this trade is 173.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $47.76/$7.96 = 6.00.

Diamond Offshore (DO):
- LONG the week of 1.3.11 at $70.57. Using $57.65 for my stop, the risk was $12.92. Closed last week at $70.79 with a $67.74 stop. The stop for this week will be $67.50. The percentage gain on this trade is 0.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $0.22/$12.92 = 0.02.

Joy Global (JOYG): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $29.80. My stop was set at $17.74, so my R = $12.06. Closed last week at $99.85 with an $82.16 stop. The stop for this week is $81.79. The percentage gain on this trade is 235.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $70.05/$12.06 = 5.81.

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Buying Google at $600?

Yes.

The only new position I added to my portfolio this week is Google, just shy of $600/share.

My signal to go long coming into the week was $550.82, but it's not like there was any chance of getting in at that price. After closing at $528.94 and then announcing huge Q2 earnings after the bell on Thursday,  it opened at $597.50 yesterday. So all in all, I was relatively happy to get in a few pennies shy of $597.62 at the close.

My initial stop for the trade is going to be $500.50, and using my 1% risk model the position will carry a total portfolio weight of 5.98%.

One other thing to think about: if I was trading my daily model on Google I would have taken a long signal back on June 30th at $506.38 (with a $476.35 stop) and I'd already be sitting on a nice 18.0% gain. 

The stop for that model would be $535.13 for Monday. 
 

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Never Confuse Brains with a Bull Market

Of course, I do it all the time. 

I've been doing it for more than two years.

This is just a quick update on all of the positions I'm holding right now.

Apple (AAPL): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $359.71 with a $312.19 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $311.52. The percentage gain on this trade is 210.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $243.72/$31.60 = 7.71.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $368.70 with a $326.26 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $324.24. The percentage gain on this trade is 12.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $42.12/$67.30 = 0.63.

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Closed last week at $295.14 with a $216.13 stop. The stop for this week will be $233.21. The percentage gain on this trade is 888.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $265.27/$10.62 = 24.98.

- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $162.79 with a $141.86 stop. The new stop for this week is $141.02. The percentage gain on this trade is 28.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $36.11/$23.49 = 1.54.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed last week at $161.15 with a $118.18 stop. The stop for this week jumps to $128.53. The percentage gain on this trade is 337.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $124.27/$21.60 = 5.75.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed Friday at $149.01 with a $114.64 stop. The stop for the coming week is $115.71. The percentage gain on this trade is 77.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $64.80/$22.19 = 2.92.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Closed last week at $156.67 with a $122.82 stop. The stop for this week will be $127.31. The percentage gain on this trade is 320.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $119.40/$14.23 = 8.39.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed last week at $147.78 with a $113.18 stop. The new stop will be $114.90. The percentage gain on this trade is 706.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $129.46/$6.98 = 18.55.

- LONG the week of 3.9.09 at $5.39. Placing my stop at $2.89 the R was just $2.50. Closed Friday at $72.27 with a $59.64 stop. The new stop for the coming week will be $61.02. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,240.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $66.88/$2.50 = 26.76.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $59.19 with a $49.53 stop. The new stop for this week is $49.97. The percentage gain on this trade is 56.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $21.39/$8.72 = 2.45.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed last week at $95.18 with a $75.25 stop. The stop for this week will be $75.34. The percentage gain on this trade is 299.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $71.38/$8.69 = 8.22.

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $27.47 with a $20.81 stop. The new stop for this week is going to be $21.82. The percentage gain on this trade is 990.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $24.95/$2.05 = 12.19.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Closed last week at $105.00 with a $79.01 stop. The stop for this week jumps up to $84.40. The percentage gain on this trade is 8.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $8.19/$22.19 = 0.37.

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Closed Friday at $63.10 with a $43.76 stop. The stop for the coming week is $45.63. The percentage gain on this trade is 499.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $52.57/$3.97 = 13.24.

Boeing (BA): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $43.65. I used $32.10 for my stop, so the risk was $11.55. Closed last week at $75.07 with a $69.65 stop. The new stop will be $70.09. The percentage gain on this trade is 72.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $31.42/$11.55 = 2.72.

Citrix Systems (CTXS): 
- LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $27.51. My stop was $19.55, so that makes the risk $7.96. Closed last week at $82.98 with a $69.88 stop. The new stop is $70.61. The percentage gain on this trade is 201.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $55.47/$7.96 = 6.97.

Diamond Offshore (DO):
- LONG the week of 1.3.11 at $70.57. Using $57.65 for my stop, the risk was $12.92. Closed last week at $70.71 with a $66.57 stop. The stop for this week will be $67.32. The percentage gain on this trade is 0.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $0.14/$12.92 = 0.01.

Joy Global (JOYG): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $29.80. My stop was set at $17.74, so my R = $12.06. Closed last week at $97.25 with an $80.17 stop. The stop for this week is $81.47. The percentage gain on this trade is 226.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $67.45/$12.06 = 5.59.