I first blogged about Netflix almost three weeks ago, back on March 9th. That day it closed at $192.99, which was not far from its $180.33 stop, but well below its Valentine's Day high of $247.55. I thought we might see a short signal before the week was out. But we didn't.
So how has the stock traded since then?
So how has the stock traded since then?
1. SHORT the week of 8.2.04 at $16.91 with a $30.66 stop. Traded as low as $8.91 the week of 3.21.05, but with relatively low volatility it didn't have to move up very far to trigger my $12.50 stop the week of 5.9.05. Gain of 15.6%
2. Reversed to LONG the week of 5.9.05 at $14.28 with a stop at $9.96. Traded all the way up to $33.12 the week of 4.24.06, but stalled and steadily traded back down past my $24.78 stop the week of 7.10.06. Gain of 69.4%
3. Reversed to SHORT the week of 7.10.06 at $24.19 with a $30.59 stop. Traded as low as $18.12 the week of 8.21.06, then quickly shot back up and through my $23.93 stop the week of 10.23.06. Loss of -14.1%
4. Reversed to LONG the week of 10.23.06 at $27.59 with my stop at $20.53. Traded up a little bit to $30 in the last week of November, then sideways in a narrow $27-30 range before finally moving down past my $23.72 stop the week of 1.8.07. Loss of -17.7%
5. Reversed to SHORT the week of 1.8.07 at $22.71 with a $28.57 stop. Traded as low as $15.62 the week of 7.23.07, but the stock was obviously (in hindsight) not in any kind of trending mode, and it eventually drifted above my $21.80 stop the week of 10.1.07. Gain of 3.1%
6. Reversed to LONG the week of 10.1.07 at $22.00 with a $16.82 stop. Traded as high as $40.90 the week of 4.14.08, then dipped just low enough to trip my $28.34 stop the week of 6.23.08. Gain of 21.5%
7. Reversed to SHORT the week of 6.23.08 at $26.74 with my stop set at $37.73. Traded in a tight range around $30 through September before dropping down to $17.90 the week of 10.27.08, then immediately reversed course and blew through my $29.84 stop the week of 12.29.08. Loss of -11.7%
8. Reversed to LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87 with a $19.25 stop. Traded as high as $247.55 the week of 2.14.11, but cooled off in early March, briefly dropping below $190. Last week it rebounded back to $230.01, and so far it's moving higher again today. The stop, due to the increased volatility, has actually dropped back a little to $174.89. Gain of 670.0%
Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 5 | 62.5% | $43.63/share avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 37.5% | -$3.80/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 92.0% | $25.84/share
No comments:
Post a Comment