Sunday, March 13, 2011

Mosaic Co. (MOS)

1. SHORT the week of 12.13.04 at $17.15 with a $20.66 stop. Traded as low as $12.36 the week of 5.23.05, then moved slowly upwards, just barely reaching my $16.27 stop the week of 7.5.05. Gain of 5.0%

2. Reversed to LONG the week of 7.5.05 at $16.29 with a $13.04 stop. Traded as high as $17.99 the week of 8.8.05, but (in hindsight) there was clearly no trend in place, and it drifted below my $15.13 stop the week of 10.3.05. Loss of -10.0%

3. Reversed to SHORT the week of 10.3.05 at $14.66 with a $17.64 stop. Traded as low as $12.50 the week of 11.14.05, then sideways and slightly upwards, triggering my $15.25 stop the week of 1.3.06. Loss of -7.0%

4. Reversed to LONG the week of 1.3.06 at $15.68 with a $13.15 stop. Traded as high as $163.25 the week of 6.16.08, but the bottom quickly fell out, as it did for so many stocks in mid- to late-2008, and it crashed into my $105.45 stop the week of 9.2.08. Gain of 502.8%
  
5. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.2.08 at $94.52 with a $144.48 stop. Traded as low as $21.94 a little over two months later, then rebounded quickly from the depths of the "financial crisis" to end 2008 near $40. Still, it didn't move above my $43.69 stop until the week of 5.4.09. Gain of 51.9%

6. Reversed to LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $45.45 with a $27.24 stop. Traded as high as $68.28 the week of 1.11.10, then sideways and gradually back down to my $54.06 stop the week of 4.26.10. Gain of 12.5%

7. Reversed to SHORT the week of 4.26.10 at $51.14 with a $63.56 stop. Traded as low as $37.68 the week of 6.28.10, then straight back up and eventually through my $52.85 stop the week of 8.16.10. Loss of -10.8%

8. Reversed to LONG the week of 8.16.10 at $56.64 with a $41.86 stop. Traded as high as $89.24 the week of 2.14.11, but has since traded down along with the rest of the market and closed last week at $76.28. The stop has moved up to $68.87. Gain of 34.7%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 5 | 62.5% | $30.82 avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 37.5% | -$2.72 avg.
Average: $18.24

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