Thursday, March 24, 2011

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)

1. LONG the week of 5.8.06 at $7.85 with a stop at $4.98. Traded sideways in a tight $7-9 range for several months before picking up slightly towards the end of the year, reaching a high of $13.41 the second week of January 2007. After that it slid back down pretty quickly, just barely taking out my $9.58 stop the week of 3.12.07. Gain of 21.9%

2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 3.12.07 at $9.57 with a $12.46 stop. Something I've learned the hard/expensive way: in a reversal system, when a stock just barely trips a stop, more often than not, the ensuing trade is probably not going to go very well. Dropped down a few pennies to $9.28 a couple of weeks later, then bounced straight back up to my $11.78 stop the week of 4.23.07. Loss of -30.2%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.23.07 at $12.46 with a $9.00 stop. Started moving right away and never looked back, hitting $20 in July and $40 by the end of the year. From a high of $42.91 the week of 11.5.07 it traded sideways and down for the rest of the year before dropping like a rock and triggering my $27.39 stop the week of 1.14.08. Gain of 119.1%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 1.14.08 at $27.30 with a stop set at $42.91. Again, tripped my stop by just $0.09. Not a good sign. Traded down to $20.12 in the middle of March, then jumped past my $35.54 stop in a flash the week of 4.21.08. Loss of -33.2%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.28.08 at $36.37 with a $22.49 stop. Briefly traded up to $38.29 in early May, then got stuck in a $32-35 range for the rest of the summer. After dropping down into the high $20s in early September, the financial crisis finally took it down to my $24.07 stop the week of 9.29.08. Loss of -38.9%

6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.29.08 at $22.24 with my stop at $34.59. Stayed above $20 into November, then completely collapsed, hitting $10.05 the week of 12.8.08. It recovered slowly from its December lows, moving up slowly dollar by dollar, until it met my $17.93 stop the week of 3.23.09. Gain of 17.6%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32 with a stop placed at $11.34. More than doubled to $40 by September, then it really went on a tear, touching $100 the following September and finally $131.63 the week of 2.14.11. It has taken a slight breather the past few weeks, closing at $120.50 last Friday, but it's on the move again this week. I don't think we'll be needing it anytime soon, but just for the record, the stop is $104.13. Gain of 557.8%

Winning Trades: 4 | 57.1% | $30.67/share avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 42.9% | -$8.70/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 87.7% | $13.80/share

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