Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)

*Please note that I've adjusted for the 3:1 stock split that took place on 2.24.11.

1. LONG the week of 9.2.03 at $3.84 with a $3.41 stop. Traded as high as $12.47 the week of 8.15.05, then sideways and eventually down to my $10.34 stop the week of 9.26.05. Gain of 163.3%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.26.05 at $10.11 with a $12.17 stop. Traded as low as $7.90 the week of 11.28.05, then gradually upwards and past my $10.36 stop the week of 2.27.06. Loss of -5.0%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 2.27.06 at $10.62 with an $8.47 stop. Traded as high as $11.59 the week of 5.8.06, but with no trend in place it didn't take long for it to trade back down to my $9.05 stop the week of 6.5.06. Loss of -14.8%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 6.5.06 at $9.05 with an $11.53 stop. Traded as low as $8.58 the following week, then very slowly back up to my $10.84 stop the week of 9.5.06. Loss of -19.8%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 9.5.06 at $10.84 with a $9.15 stop. Traded as high as $79.68 the week of 6.16.08, then sideways for a month before turning down violently as the financial crisis unfolded, tripping my $53.81 stop the week of 9.2.08. Gain of 393.3%

6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.2.08 at $53.47 with a $76.33 stop. Traded as low as $15.71 the first week of December, but then a few people began to notice that there were a lot of bargains to be had, and it recovered to move back above my $29.15 stop the week of 4.27.09. Gain of 43.9%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $29.98 with a $18.48 stop. Traded as high as $40.20 a little over a month later, then sideways in a $30-32 range for the rest of the summer, and finally below my $29.80 stop the week of 9.28.09. Loss of -5.5%
  
8. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.28.09 at $28.33 with a $36.92 stop. Traded as low as $28.05 the following week, then very quickly back up to my $36.95 stop the week of 11.16.09. Loss of -34.4%

9. Reversed to LONG the week of 11.16.09 at $38.08 with a $28.88 stop. Traded as high as $42.67 the week of 3.15.10, but clearly (in hindsight) the stock had once again entered into a non-trending/reaction mode, and my $33.87 stop was triggered the week of 5.3.10. Loss of -12.7%

10. Reversed to SHORT the week of 5.3.10 at $33.25 with a $42.23 stop. Traded as low as $27.88 the week of 6.28.10, then gradually back up and through my $36.64 stop the week of 8.2.10. Loss of -13.7%

11. Reversed to LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80 with a $29.08 stop. Traded as high as $63.97 the week of 2.14.11, but like the rest of the market it has cooled off quite a bit since and closed last week less than a dollar above its $53.44 stop at $54.16. Gain of 43.3%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 4 | 36.4% | $22.19 avg.
Losing Trades: 7 | 63.6% | -$3.52 avg.
Average: $5.83

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