Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK)

1. SHORT the week of 4.18.05 at $8.58 with my stop at $12.66. Drifted sideways in a narrow $8-10 range throughout the summer before dropping to a low of $5.64 the first week of November, then shot straight up through my $8.57 stop the week of 12.5.05. Loss of -17.6%




2. Reversed to LONG the week of 12.5.05 at $10.12 with a $6.91 stop. It slowly worked its way up to $15 in August 2006, then caught fire and doubled to $30 by the following June. It almost doubled again, reaching a high of $55.50 the last week of December 2007, then quickly faded back down to my $38.46 stop the week of 2.25.08. Gain of 264.4%

3. Reversed to SHORT the week of 2.25.08 at $36.88 with a stop at $53.65. Briefly traded down to $29.96 just two weeks later, but then jumped up to $40 in April. It moved sideways through May before triggering my $46.51 stop by just $0.01 the week of 6.16.08. Loss of -26.1%

4. Reversed to LONG the week of 6.16.08 at $46.52 with $33.52 for a stop. As I have said several times before on this blog, when a stop is tripped by just a few pennies, the following trade is probably going to be ugly. Traded up to $48.31 the following week, but then the wheels began to come off as the financial crisis spread, and by the week of 9.29.08 the stock had reached my $32.37 stop. Loss of -36.2%

5. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.22.08 at $29.70 with a $44.81 stop. Dropped like a rock through October and November, then briefly rebounded in December before slipping again, eventually falling to $12.41 the week of 3.2.09. Quickly traded back up to $20 in early April, then more or less waited there for my stop to come down from $23.87 to $21.70 the week of 5.4.09. Gain of 19.9%

6. Reversed to LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $23.80 with my stop at $15.11. Steadily traded up through the rest of 2009 and all of 2010, reaching a high of $94.70 the last week of February 2011. It has backtracked a little bit since, briefly dropping below $80 before closing last week at $83.31 with a stop at $67.15. Gain of 250.0%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 3 | 50.0% | $30.72/share avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 50.0% | -$9.44/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 75.7% | $10.70/share

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