Tuesday, March 8, 2011

8 Netflix ($NFLX) Trades

Like Riverbed Technology in my previous post, it took forever (and a day) to get an entry signal on Netflix. I began following the stock in early 2003 and didn't get a signal until the week of 8.2.04! After peaking at $36.57 the week of 6.28.04, the bottom completely fell out and finally triggered my $20.01 stop... 

1. SHORT the week of 8.2.04 at $16.91 with a $30.66 stop. Traded as low as $8.91 the week of 3.21.05, but with relatively low volatility it didn't have to move up very far to hit my $12.50 stop the week of 5.9.05. Gain of 18.4%

2. Reversed to LONG the week of 5.9.05 at $14.28 with a $9.96 stop. Traded as high as $33.12 the week of 4.24.06, but stalled and traded down past my $24.78 stop the week of 7.10.06. Gain of 69.4%

3. Reversed to SHORT the week of 7.10.06 at $24.19 with a $30.59 stop. Traded as low as $18.12 the week of 8.21.06, then slowly back up and through my $23.93 stop the week of 10.23.06. Loss of -12.3%

4. Reversed to LONG the week of 10.23.06 at $27.59 with a $20.53 stop. Traded as high as $30 the week of 11.27.06, then sideways and down past my $23.72 stop the week of 1.8.07. Loss of -17.7%
  
5. Reversed to SHORT the week of 1.8.07 at $22.71 with a $28.57 stop. Traded as low as $15.62 the week of 7.23.07, but the stock was obviously (in hindsight) not in any kind of trending mode, and it eventually drifted above my $21.80 stop the week of 10.1.07. Gain of 3.2%

6. Reversed to LONG the week of 10.1.07 at $22 with a $16.82 stop. Traded as high as $40.90 the week of 4.14.08, then straight back down to my $28.34 stop the week of 6.23.08. Gain of 21.5%

7. Reversed to SHORT the week of 6.23.08 at $26.74 with a $37.73 stop. Traded as low as $17.90 the week of 10.27.08, but then it took off and blew through my $29.84 stop the week of 12.29.08. Loss of -10.5%

8. Reversed to LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87 with a $19.25 stop. Traded as high as $247.55 the week of 2.14.11, but it has cooled off a little and closed last week at $210.72. The stop has moved up to $178.11. Gain of 605.5%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 5 | 62.5% | $39.77 avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 37.5% | -$3.80 avg.
Average: $23.43

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