Saturday, December 1, 2012

Precision Castparts (PCP)

BUY signal the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My first stop was $103.19, so my risk (R)/share was $23.49. Closed Friday at $183.39 with a $157.39 stop. My new stop for this week is $161.68. The percentage gain on this trade is +44.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$56.71/$23.49 = +2.41.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$63.25/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +210.9% | +$63.25/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +13.46

It might not be the sexiest stock, but there are only three stocks that trade better than Precision Castparts in this system: Apple, Intuitive Surgical, and Mastercard.

Mosaic (MOS)

BUY signal the week of 7.16.12 at $57.50. My first stop was $47.08, so my risk (R)/share was $10.42. Stopped out the week of 10.31.12 at $52.19. The percentage loss on this trade was -9.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$5.31/$10.42 = -0.51.

History (beginning in 2004):
Winning Trades: 3 | 60.0% | +$31.75/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 40.0% | -$3.47/share avg.
Average Trade: +103.0% | +$17.66/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +6.23

Sorry this isn't a more timely post, but my blogging can never seem to keep up with my trading. 

Mastercard (MA)

BUY signal the week of 10.18.10 at $242.64. My first stop was $202.75, so my risk (R)/share was $39.89. Closed Friday at $488.68 with a $421.09 stop. My new stop for this week is $430.27. The percentage gain on this trade is +101.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$246.04/$39.89 = +6.17.

History (beginning in 2006):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$96.95/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$35.79/share avg.
Average Trade: +51.1% | +$70.40/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.62

Facebook (FB)

BUY signal the week of 11.26.12 (yesterday) at $28.00. My first stop is $19.07, so my risk (R)/share is going to be $8.93.

This is my first Facebook trade... should be interesting.

Salesforce.com (CRM)

BUY signal the week of 2.21.12 at $143.64. My first stop was $108.52, so my risk (R)/share was $35.12. Closed Friday at $157.67 with a $130.35 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $132.15. The percentage gain on this trade is +9.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$14.03/$35.12 = +0.40.

History (beginning in 2004):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$29.57/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$0.67/share avg.
Average Trade: +65.2% | +$23.52/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.90

CF Industries (CF)

BUY signal the week of 1.9.12 at $172.55. My first stop was $125.48, so my risk (R)/share was $47.07. Closed Friday at $214.03 with a $187.89 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $188.49. The percentage gain on this trade is +24.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$41.48/$47.07 = +0.88.

History (beginning in 2006):
Winning Trades: 4 | 100.0% | +$41.41/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +123.5% | +$41.41/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +7.02

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Precision Castparts (PCP)

BUY signal the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My first stop was $103.19, so my risk (R)/share was $23.49. Closed Friday at $165.68 with a $160.05 stop. My new stop for this week is $159.78. The percentage gain on this trade is +30.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$39.00/$23.49 = +1.66.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$57.35/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +206.2% | +$57.35/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +13.20

Mosaic (MOS)

BUY signal the week of 7.16.12 at $57.50. My first stop was $47.08, so my risk (R)/share was $10.42. Closed Friday at $53.97 with a $51.69 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $52.11. The percentage loss on this trade is -6.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$3.53/$10.42 = -0.34.

History (beginning in 2004):
Winning Trades: 3 | 60.0% | +$31.75/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 40.0% | -$2.58/share avg.
Average Trade: +103.6% | +$18.02/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +6.26

Mastercard (MA)

BUY signal the week of 10.18.10 at $242.64. My first stop was $202.75, so my risk (R)/share was $39.89. Closed Friday at $470.06 with a $417.69 stop. My new stop for this week is $418.13. The percentage gain on this trade is +93.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$227.42/$39.89 = +5.70.

History (beginning in 2006):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$92.30/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$35.79/share avg.
Average Trade: +49.6% | +$66.68/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.52

Citrix Systems (CTXS)

BUY signal the week of 10.24.11 at $73.37. My first stop was $49.74, so my risk (R)/share was $23.63. Stopped out the week of 10.8.12 at $67.70,  a little below my $69.64 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -7.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$5.67/$23.63 = -0.24.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$13.52/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$5.67/share avg.
Average Trade: +42.1% | +$9.68/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.62

Salesforce.com (CRM)

BUY signal the week of 2.21.12 at $143.64. My first stop was $108.52, so my risk (R)/share was $35.12. Closed Friday at $149.01 with a $129.51 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $130.68. The percentage gain on this trade is +3.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$5.37/$35.12 = +0.15.

History (beginning in 2004):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$27.40/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$0.67/share avg.
Average Trade: +64.0% | +$21.79/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.85

CF Industries (CF)

BUY signal the week of 1.9.12 at $172.55. My first stop was $125.48, so my risk (R)/share was $47.07. Closed Friday at $206.68 with a $188.34 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $188.54. The percentage gain on this trade is +19.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$34.13/$47.07 = +0.73.

History (beginning in 2005):
Winning Trades: 4 | 100.0% | +$39.58/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +122.5% | +$39.58/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +6.98

Apple (AAPL)

For the first time since March 2009 I do not own any shares of Apple.

Honestly, it's a very weird feeling.

BUY signal the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My first stop was $84.39, so my risk (R)/share was $31.60. Stopped out Friday at $609.84, way below last week's $617.74 stop. The percentage gain on this trade was +425.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was +$493.85/$31.60 = +15.63.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 75.0% | +$203.20/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 25.0% | -$12.10/share avg.
Average Trade: +274.8% | +$149.38/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +11.14

Monday, September 3, 2012

Precision Castparts (PCP)

BUY signal the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My first stop was $103.19, so my risk (R)/share was $23.49. Closed Friday at $161.08 with a $156.12 stop. My new stop for this week is $156.84. The percentage gain on this trade is +27.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$34.40/$23.49 = +1.46.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$55.82/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +205.0% | +$55.82/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +13.14

Mosaic (MOS)

BUY signal the week of 7.16.12 at $57.50. My first stop was $47.08, so my risk (R)/share was $10.42. Closed Friday at $57.91 with a $50.30 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $50.85. The percentage gain on this trade is +0.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$0.41/$10.42 = +0.04.

History (beginning in 2004):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$23.91/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$1.63/share avg.
Average Trade: +105.0% | +$18.80/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +6.34

Mastercard (MA)

BUY signal the week of 10.18.10 at $242.64. My first stop was $202.75, so my risk (R)/share was $39.89. Closed Friday at $422.90 with a $395.04 stop. My new stop for this week is $400.78. The percentage gain on this trade is +74.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$180.26/$39.89 = +4.52.

History (beginning in 2006):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$80.51/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$35.79/share avg.
Average Trade: +45.7% | +$57.25/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.29

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

BUY signal the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. My first stop was $259.28, so my risk (R)/share was $67.30. Closed Friday at $491.79, well below my $505.22 stop. The percentage gain on this trade was +50.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was +$165.21/$67.30 = +2.45.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$130.54/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$34.90/share avg.
Average Trade: +167.6% | +$97.45/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +4.45

Citrix Systems (CTXS)

BUY signal the week of 10.24.11 at $73.37. My first stop was $49.74, so my risk (R)/share was $23.63. Closed Friday at $77.69 with a $67.99 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $69.42. The percentage gain on this trade is +5.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$4.32/$23.63 = +0.18.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 5 | 100.0% | +$11.68/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +44.8% | +$11.68/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.70

Salesforce.com (CRM)

BUY signal the week of 2.21.12 at $143.64. My first stop was $108.52, so my risk (R)/share was $35.12. Closed Friday at $145.18 with a $124.51 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $125.27. The percentage gain on this trade is +1.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$1.54/$35.12 = +0.04.

History (beginning in 2004):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$26.45/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$0.67/share avg.
Average Trade: +63.5% | +$21.02/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.83

CF Industries (CF)

BUY signal the week of 1.9.12 at $172.55. My first stop was $125.48, so my risk (R)/share was $47.07. Closed Friday at $207.01 with a $175.69 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $179.04. The percentage gain on this trade is +20.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$34.46/$47.07 = +0.73.

History (beginning in 2005):
Winning Trades: 4 | 100.0% | +$39.66/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +122.5% | +$39.66/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +6.98

Apple (AAPL)

BUY signal the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My first stop was $84.39, so my risk (R)/share was $31.60. Closed Friday at $665.24 with a $583.74 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $586.99. The percentage gain on this trade is +473.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$549.25/$31.60 = +17.38.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 75.0% | +$221.67/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 25.0% | -$12.10/share avg.
Average Trade: +286.7% | +$163.23/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +11.57

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Precision Castparts (PCP)

BUY signal the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My first stop was $103.19, so my risk (R)/share was $23.49. Closed Friday at $161.61 with a $154.03 stop. My new stop for this week is $154.46. The percentage gain on this trade is +27.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$34.93/$23.49 = +1.49.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$55.99/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +205.2% | +$55.99/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +13.15

Mosaic (MOS)

BUY signal the week of 7.16.12 at $57.50. My first stop was $47.08, so my risk (R)/share was $10.42. Closed Friday at $58.51 with a $48.92 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $49.21. The percentage gain on this trade is +1.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$1.01/$10.42 = +0.10.

History (beginning in 2004):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$24.06/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$1.63/share avg.
Average Trade: +105.2% | +$18.92/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +6.35

Mastercard (MA)

BUY signal the week of 10.18.10 at $242.64. My first stop was $202.75, so my risk (R)/share was $39.89. Closed Friday at $426.03 with a $380.99 stop. My new stop for this week is $385.64. The percentage gain on this trade is +75.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$183.39/$39.89 = +4.60.

History (beginning in 2006):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$81.29/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$35.79/share avg.
Average Trade: +45.9% | +$57.87/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.30

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

BUY signal the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. My first stop was $259.28, so my risk (R)/share was $67.30. Closed Friday at $498.58 with a $487.16 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $495.54. The percentage gain on this trade is +52.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$172.00/$67.30 = +2.56.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$132.24/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$34.90/share avg.
Average Trade: +168.0% | +$98.81/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +4.47

Citrix Systems (CTXS)

BUY signal the week of 10.24.11 at $73.37. My first stop was $49.74, so my risk (R)/share was $23.63. Closed Friday at $76.26 with a $63.60 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $64.86. The percentage gain on this trade is +3.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$2.89/$23.63 = +0.12.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 5 | 100.0% | +$11.40/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +44.4% | +$11.40/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.69

Salesforce.com (CRM)

BUY signal the week of 2.21.12 at $143.64. My first stop was $108.52, so my risk (R)/share was $35.12. Closed Friday at $139.84 with a $122.65 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $122.10. The percentage loss on this trade is -2.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$3.80/$35.12 = -0.11.

History (beginning in 2004):
Winning Trades: 3 | 60.0% | +$34.75/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 40.0% | -$2.23/share avg.
Average Trade: +62.8% | +$19.95/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.80

CF Industries (CF)

BUY signal the week of 1.9.12 at $172.55. My first stop was $125.48, so my risk (R)/share was $47.07. Closed Friday at $207.95 with a $160.91 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $164.97. The percentage gain on this trade is +20.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$35.40/$47.07 = +0.75.

History (beginning in 2005):
Winning Trades: 4 | 100.0% | +$39.89/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +122.6% | +$39.89/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +6.98

Apple (AAPL)

BUY signal the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My first stop was $84.39, so my risk (R)/share was $31.60. Closed Friday at $621.70 with a $546.00 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $554.35. The percentage gain on this trade is +436.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$505.71/$31.60 = +16.00.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 75.0% | +$207.15/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 25.0% | -$12.10/share avg.
Average Trade: +277.4% | +$152.34/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +11.23

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Mosaic (MOS)

BUY signal Friday at $57.50. My initial stop is $47.08, so my risk (R)/share is $10.42. 

History (beginning in 2004):
Winning Trades: 3 | 75.0% | +$31.75/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 25.0% | -$1.63/share avg.
Average Trade: +131.1% | +$23.40/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +7.91

Wynn Resorts (WYNN)

BUY signal the week of 4.23.12 at $135.04. My first stop was $108.18, so my risk (R)/share was $26.86. Stopped out the week of 5.14.12 at $101.94. The percentage loss on this trade was -24.5% and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$33.10/$26.86 = -1.23.

The only thing that actually bothers me about this trade is the -1.23 reward-to-risk ratio. I should never take worse than a -1.0 R loss.  

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 75.0% | +$38.71/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 25.0% | -$33.10/share avg.
Average Trade: +63.8% | +$20.76/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.31

VMWare (VMW)

BUY signal the week of 2.13.12 at $99.11. My first stop was $79.48, so my risk (R)/share was $19.63. Stopped out the week of 5.29.12 at $89.46. The percentage loss on this trade was -9.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$9.65/$19.63 = -0.49.

A $4.80/share expected value and 0.89 reward-to-risk ratio means I probably won't be trading VMW again anytime soon...

History (beginning in 2007):
Winning Trades: 1 | 33.3% | +$44.11/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 66.7% | -$14.85/share avg.
Average Trade: +37.7% | +$4.80/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +0.89

Starbucks (SBUX)

BUY signal the week of 4.6.09 at $11.75. My first stop was $7.82, so my risk (R)/share was $3.93. Stopped out the week of 5.14.12 at $51.53. The percentage gain on this trade was +338.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$39.78/$3.93 = +10.12.     

It's funny, but one really good trade (+338.6%) and three mediocre/bad trades (+11.2%, -14.2%, and -12.2%) actually looks pretty good when you add it all up.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 2 | 50.0% | +$21.41/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 50.0% | -$4.31/share avg.
Average Trade: +80.9% | +$8.55/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.38

Rackspace Hosting (RAX)

BUY signal the week of 12.5.11 at $44.02. My first stop was $32.97, so my risk (R)/share was $11.05. Stopped out the week of 6.11.12 at $42.86. The percentage loss on this trade was -2.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$1.16/$11.05 = -0.11.

Once again, we go from a +34.1% gain to a -2.6% loss...

History (beginning in 2008):
Winning Trades: 2 | 66.7% | +$10.07/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 33.3% | -$1.16/share avg.
Average Trade: +51.7% | +$6.32/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.51

Precision Castparts (PCP)

BUY signal the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My first stop was $103.19, so my risk (R)/share was $23.49. Closed Friday at $165.02 with a $155.77 stop. My new stop for this week is $155.20. The percentage gain on this trade is +30.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$38.34/$23.49 = +1.63.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$57.13/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +206.1% | +$57.13/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +13.20

Priceline (PCLN)

BUY signal the week of 2.13.12 at $582.52. My first stop was $483.98, so my risk (R)/share was $98.54. Stopped out the week of 5.29.12 at $610.50. The percentage gain on this trade was +4.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was +$27.98/$98.54 = +0.28.

Priceline traded as high as $762.13 the week of 4.23.12, so I ended up giving back basically all of my gains by the time I finally got stopped out. Honestly, I probably shouldn't be trading this stock in the first place. Volatility causes my stops to widen further, and it would be hard to find a stock with more volatility than Priceline.

Maybe Google?

I don't trade Google anymore...

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 5 | 71.4% | +$74.18/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 28.6% | -$5.52/share avg.
Average Trade: +73.3% | +$51.41/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.46

OpenTable (OPEN)

BUY signal the week of 1.30.12 at $52.00. My first stop was $35.77, so my risk (R)/share was $16.23. Stopped out the week of 4.30.12 at $36.50. The percentage loss on this trade was -29.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$15.50/$23.63 = -0.95.

So far it's one good trade (+155.3%) and one bad trade (-29.8%). I am kind of curious to see how the next trade turns out, but it looks like we'll have to wait a while. As it stands right now, with the stock trading at $37.89, my next buy signal is $48.12.

History (beginning in 2009):
Winning Trades: 1 | 50.0% | +$48.30/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 50.0% | -$15.50/share avg.
Average Trade: +62.7% | +$16.40/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.78

Mastercard (MA)

BUY signal the week of 10.18.10 at $242.64. My first stop was $202.75, so my risk (R)/share was $39.89. Closed Friday at $423.15 with a $387.44 stop. My new stop for this week is $386.07. The percentage gain on this trade is +74.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$180.51/$39.89 = +4.53.

History (beginning in 2006):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$80.57/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$35.79/share avg.
Average Trade: +45.7% | +$57.30/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.29

Lululemon (LULU)

BUY signal the week of 3.30.09 at $5.10 (2:1 split adjusted). My first stop was $2.29, so my risk (R)/share was $2.81. Stopped out the week of 7.9.12 at $56.15. The percentage gain on this trade was +1,001.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was +$51.05/$2.81 = +18.14.

As always, I gave some money back at the end of the trend (LULU traded as high as $81.09 the week of 4.30.12), but still managed to keep a few dollars.

History (beginning in 2007):
Winning Trades: 1 | 100.0% | +$51.05/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.0/share avg.
Average Trade: +1,001.0% | +$51.05/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +18.14

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

BUY signal the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. My first stop was $259.28, so my risk (R)/share was $67.30. Closed Friday at $498.50 with a $498.33 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $485.02. The percentage gain on this trade is +52.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$171.92/$67.30 = +2.55.

I took a -$45.71/share haircut on ISRG Friday - it closed just $0.17 above my stop. Would it have been better to be stopped out? I guess we'll find out this week.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$132.22/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$34.90/share avg.
Average Trade: +168.0% | +$98.80/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +4.47

F5 Networks (FFIV)

BUY signal the week of 10.24.11 at $107.63. My first stop was $73.46, so my risk (R)/share was $34.17. Stopped out the week of 5.29.12 at $97.31. The percentage loss on this trade was -9.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$10.32/$34.17 = -0.30.

From +26.5% to -9.6% in just over month on this trade...   

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 2 | 40.0% | +$45.01/share avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 60.0% | -$5.49/share avg.
Average Trade: +60.2% | +$14.71/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.98

Diamond Offshore (DO)

BUY signal the week of 2.21.12 at $67.19. My first stop was $56.84, so my risk (R)/share was $10.35. Stopped out the week of 5.14.12 at $59.15. The percentage loss on this trade was -12.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$8.04/$10.35 = -0.78.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 60.0% | +$23.77/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 40.0% | -$8.19/share avg.
Average Trade: +50.5% | +$10.99/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +3.04

Citrix Systems (CTXS)

BUY signal the week of 10.24.11 at $73.37. My first stop was $49.74, so my risk (R)/share was $23.63. Closed Friday at $80.75 with a $66.62 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $65.74. The percentage gain on this trade is +10.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$7.38/$23.63 = +0.31.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 5 | 100.0% | +$12.29/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +45.6% | +$12.29/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.73

Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH)

BUY signal the week of 10.24.11 at $75.67. My first stop was $55.98, so my risk (R)/share was $19.69. Stopped out the week of 5.7.12 at $61.29. The percentage loss on this trade was -19.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$14.38/$19.69 = -0.73.

Something I had not noticed until recently, although in retrospect it should be obvious, is that the reward-to-risk ratio on a single trade matches the impact of that trade on the overall portfolio. In this case, a trade with -19.0% loss and a -0.73 reward-to-risk ratio results in a -0.73% loss to the overall portfolio. Pretty simple.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 75.0% | +$22.69/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 25.0% | -$14.38/share avg.
Average Trade: +82.9% | +$13.42/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +3.03

Crocs (CROX)

BUY signal the week of 3.26.12 at $20.92. My first stop was $15.04, so my risk (R)/share was $5.88. Stopped out the week of 5.14.12 at $15.49. The percentage loss on this trade was -26.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$5.43/$5.88 = -0.92. 

I still think CROX trades pretty well in this system.

History (beginning in 2006): 
Winning Trades: 2 | 66.7% | +$20.41/share avg. 
Losing Trades: 1 | 33.3% | -$5.43/share avg. 
Average Trade: +207.9% | +$11.79/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +3.59

Salesforce.com (CRM)

BUY signal the week of 2.21.12 at $143.64. My first stop was $108.52, so my risk (R)/share was $35.12. Closed Friday at $135.16 with a $123.83 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $122.16. The percentage loss on this trade is -5.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$8.48/$35.12 = -0.24.

History (beginning in 2004):
Winning Trades: 3 | 60.0% | +$34.75/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 40.0% | -$4.57/share avg.
Average Trade: +62.1% | +$19.02/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.77

Cummins (CMI)

BUY signal the week of 1.17.12 at $104.78. My first stop was $82.00, so my risk (R)/share was $22.78. Stopped out the week of 5.14.12 at $97.20. The percentage loss on this trade was -7.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$7.58/$22.78 = -0.33.

By now you've already heard this story a couple of times: +21.7% at one point only to give it all back when the market moved down (faster than my stops could move up) in May.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 5 | 83.3% | +$17.46/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 16.7% | -$7.58/share avg.
Average Trade: +62.4% | +$13.29/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.53

CME Group (CME)

BUY signal the week of 2.6.12 at $291.59. My first stop was $234.34, so my risk (R)/share was $57.25. Stopped out Friday at $257.00, just $0.71 below my with a $257.71 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -11.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$34.59/$57.25 = -0.60.

Once again I'm reminded of how important it is to use good risk management (I've actually been reminded of that more than a few times recently). In this case, using a 1% risk model limits the position/trading loss to just a -0.6% overall portfolio loss. 

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 5 | 71.4% | +$82.42/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 28.6% | -$50.54/share avg.
Average Trade: +36.8% | +$44.43/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.92

CF Industries (CF)

BUY signal the week of 1.9.12 at $172.55. My first stop was $125.48, so my risk (R)/share was $47.07. Closed Friday at $202.77 with a $155.66 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $159.89. The percentage gain on this trade is +17.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$30.22/$47.07 = +0.64.

Just like the broader market, this trade has been a real rollercoaster ride. It traded up to $197.97 the week of 4.23.12, then all the way down to $157.01 less than a month later (close to my $152.66 stop at the time), and now it's back up and over $200.

History (beginning in 2005):
Winning Trades: 4 | 100.0% | +$38.60/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +121.9% | +$38.60/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +6.96

Caterpillar (CAT)

BUY signal the week of 1.3.12 at $95.76. My first stop was $75.13, so my risk (R)/share was $20.63. Stopped out the week of 4.30.12 at $98.44. The percentage gain on this trade was +2.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was +$2.68/$20.63 = +0.13.

Similar to Akamai Technologies earlier, at one point this was a +21.1% gain before I gave most of it back. At least I managed to keep a few dollars this time.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 6 | 85.7% | +$15.56/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 14.3% | -$6.62/share avg.
Average Trade: +36.1% | +$12.39/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.41

Boeing (BA)

BUY signal the week of 12.19.11 at $73.97. My first stop was $59.80, so my risk (R)/share was $14.17. Stopped out the week of 5.29.12 at $67.24. The percentage loss on this trade was -9.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$6.73/$14.17 = -0.47.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 75.0% | +$19.47/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 25.0% | -$6.73/share avg.
Average Trade: +40.0% | +$12.92/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.89

Aruba Networks (ARUN)

BUY signal the week of 1.30.12 at $23.86. My first stop was $16.44, so my risk (R)/share was $7.42. Stopped out at $16.55 the week of 5.7.12. The percentage loss on this trade was -30.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$7.31/$7.42 = -0.99.

The good news here (and it's a real stretch to say there is any good news here), is that my 1% risk model restricts a terrible trade like this one to just a 1% overall portfolio loss.

History (beginning in 2007):
Winning Trades: 1 | 33.3% | +$19.68/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 66.7% | -$4.77/share avg.
Average Trade: +137.1% | +$3.38/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +3.02

Akamai Technologies (AKAM)

BUY signal the week of 10.31.11 at $29.82. My first stop was $19.72, so my risk (R)/share was $10.10. Stopped out the week of 5.14.12 at $28.45. The percentage loss on this trade was -4.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$1.37/$10.10 = -0.14. 

When Akamai closed the week of 2.6.12 at $38.43 I was looking at a +28.9% gain on this trade... obviously I should have taken some profits at that point. Too bad it wasn't so obvious back then.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 50.0% | +$19.62/share avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 50.0% | -$6.39/share avg.
Average Trade: +115.1% | +$6.62/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +3.46

Apple (AAPL)

Once again, I'm going to try and get this blog caught up on all of the trades that I was talking about back at the beginning of May. 

It's not that I want to talk about these trades. In fact, I'd much rather forget most of them. On top of that, a lot of the information is so far out of date it's just ridiculous. 

Still, I think it's important to recap the results and close things out before moving forward with any new posts.

As usual, we'll kick things off with Apple:
 
BUY signal the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My first stop was $84.39, so my risk (R)/share was $31.60. Closed Friday at $604.30 with a $546.03 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $553.33. The percentage gain on this trade is +421.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$488.31/$31.60 = +15.45.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 75.0% | +$201.35/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 25.0% | -$12.10/share avg.
Average Trade: +273.6% | +$147.99/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +11.09

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Apple (AAPL)

It's time to try and get this blog caught up on everything that has happened in the markets over the last couple of (very turbulent) months. 

Well, not everything that has happened. 

But over the next several days I am going to cover all of the stocks that I've blogged about recently. Some/much of the information is going to be woefully out of date, and I apologize for that, but I think it's important to make updates and bring closure, even for the things that happened several weeks ago. I'd love to forget/not talk about a lot of these trades, but you have to take the bad with the good...

As you might have guessed from the title, we're going to kick things off with Apple

BUY signal the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My first stop was $84.39, so my risk (R)/share was $31.60. Closed Friday at $582.10 with a $534.36 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $540.13. The percentage gain on this trade is +401.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$466.11/$31.60 = +14.75.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 75.0% | +$193.95/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 25.0% | -$12.10/share avg.
Average Trade: +268.8% | +$142.44/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +10.92

I was just $1.86 away from being stopped out when Apple closed the week of 5.14 at $530.38. Sometimes I wonder if my stops are a little too wide, but I'd say this one is just about right.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Cimarex Energy (XEC)

BUY signal the week of 2.13.12 at $82.78. My first stop was $61.20, so my risk (R)/share was $21.58. Closed the week of 4.16.12 at $63.60, way below my $68.73 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -23.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$19.18/$21.58 = -0.89.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 60.0% | +$31.96/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 40.0% | -$11.18/share avg.
Average Trade: +62.1% | +$14.70/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.34

Wynn Resorts (WYNN)

BUY signal the week of 4.23.12 (Friday) at $135.04. My first stop is $108.18, so my risk (R)/share is $26.86.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$38.71/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +93.2% | +$38.71/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.16

VMWare (VMW)

BUY signal the week of 2.13.12 at $99.11. My first stop was $79.48, so my risk (R)/share was $19.63. Closed Friday at $112.43 with a $92.03 stop. My new stop for this week is $90.76. The percentage gain on this trade is +13.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$13.32/$19.63 = +0.68.

History (beginning in 2007):
Winning Trades: 2 | 66.7% | +$28.72/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 33.3% | -$20.05/share avg.
Average Trade: +45.5% | +$12.46/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.28

Starbucks (SBUX)

BUY signal the week of 4.6.09 at $11.75. My first stop was $7.82, so my risk (R)/share was $3.93. Closed Friday at $57.43 with a $53.27 stop. My new stop for this week is $52.46. The percentage gain on this trade is +388.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$45.68/$3.93 = +11.62.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 2 | 50.0% | +$24.36/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 50.0% | -$4.31/share avg.
Average Trade: +93.4% | +$10.03/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.76

Riverbed Technology (RVBD)

BUY signal the week of 1.17.12 at $28.63. My first stop was $19.82, so my risk (R)/share was $8.81. Closed the week of 4.16.12 at $19.85, not even close to my $22.24 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -30.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$8.78/$8.81 = -1.00.

History (beginning in 2006):
Winning Trades: 1 | 50.0% | +$23.95/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 50.0% | -$8.78/share avg.
Average Trade: +134.7% | +$7.59/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +3.19

Like my recent Netflix trade, this is a very good reminder to always stick with my 1% risk/position-sizing model. 

Rackspace Hosting (RAX)

BUY signal the week of 12.5.11 at $44.02. My first stop was $32.97, so my risk (R)/share was $11.05. Closed Friday at $58.99 with a $46.00 stop. My new stop for this week is $45.82. The percentage gain on this trade is +34.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$14.97/$11.05 = +1.36.

History (beginning in 2008):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$11.70/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +63.9% | +$11.70/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.00

Precision Castparts (PCP)

BUY signal the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My first stop was $103.19, so my risk (R)/share was $23.49. Closed Friday at $177.48 with a $155.85 stop. My new stop for this week is $155.70. The percentage gain on this trade is +40.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$50.80/$23.49 = +2.16.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$61.27/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +209.3% | +$61.27/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +13.37

Priceline (PCLN)

BUY signal the week of 2.13.12 at $582.52. My first stop was $483.98, so my risk (R)/share was $98.54. Closed Friday at $762.13 with a $642.48 stop. My new stop for this week is $625.80. The percentage gain on this trade is +30.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$179.61/$98.54 = +1.82.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 5 | 71.4% | +$104.50/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 28.6% | -$5.52/share avg.
Average Trade: +77.0% | +$73.07/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.68

OpenTable (OPEN)

BUY signal the week of 1.30.12 at $52.00. My first stop was $35.77, so my risk (R)/share was $16.23. Closed Friday at $44.82 with a $39.75 stop. My new stop for this week is $39.62. The percentage loss on this trade is -13.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$7.18/$23.63 = -0.44.

History (beginning in 2009):
Winning Trades: 1 | 50.0% | +$48.30/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 50.0% | -$7.18/share avg.
Average Trade: +70.7% | +$20.56/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +3.04

Monday, April 30, 2012

Netflix (NFLX)

BUY signal the week of 1.23.12 at $123.79. My first stop was $73.35, so my risk (R)/share was $50.44. Closed Friday at $83.74, way below my $91.38 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -32.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$40.05/$50.44 = -0.79.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 60.0% | +$63.33/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 40.0% | -$22.47/share avg.
Average Trade: +125.6% | +$29.01/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +3.65

Trades like this one remind me how important it is to always stick with my 1% risk model. 

Mastercard (MA)

BUY signal the week of 10.18.10 at $242.64. My first stop was $202.75, so my risk (R)/share was $39.89. Closed Friday at $458.03 with a $385.91 stop. My new stop for this week is $393.45. The percentage gain on this trade is +88.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$215.39/$39.89 = +5.40.

History (beginning in 2006):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$89.29/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$35.79/share avg.
Average Trade: +48.6% | +$64.27/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.46

Lululemon (LULU)

BUY signal the week of 3.30.09 at $5.10 (2:1 split adjusted). My first stop was $2.29, so my risk (R)/share was $2.81. Closed Friday at $74.71 with a $63.53 stop. My new stop for this week is $63.21. The percentage gain on this trade is +1,364.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$69.61/$2.81 = +24.74.

History (beginning in 2007):
Winning Trades: 1 | 100.0% | +$69.61/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.0/share avg.
Average Trade: +1,364.9% | +$69.61/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +24.74