Saturday, March 19, 2011

Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT)

1. LONG the week of 3.17.03 at $21.99 with a stop at $17.67. Traded as high as $36.65 the week of 1.26.04, then sideways in a narrow $32-36 range over the next six months, and finally down through my $31.91 stop the week of 7.19.04. Gain of 43.8%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 7.19.04 at $31.62 with a $36.71 stop. Traded down slightly to $29.58 a couple of weeks later, then slowly back up to my $34.03 stop the week of 9.27.04. Loss of -10.1%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 9.27.04 at $34.81 with a $30.29 stop. Quickly moved up to $40, trading as high as $43.58 the week of 2.28.05, then just as quickly ran out of steam and traded down to my $38.39 stop the week of 4.11.05. Gain of 4.5%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 4.11.05 at $36.39 with a stop at $42.44. Dropped to $36.19 the following week, but that proved to be just a slight pause in the uptrend, and it jumped back up and above my $41.97 stop the week of 6.6.05. Loss of -16.8%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 6.6.05 at $42.50 with a $36.82 stop. Wasted no time trading up to $50 and then $60, reaching a high of $73.05 the week of 5.8.06, then gradually wound its way back down, tripping my $59.36 stop the week of 9.11.06. Gain of 37.7%

6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.11.06 at $58.52 with a $69.73 stop. Traded as low as $52.84 a little over a month later, then sideways for several months in a very tight $53-56 range, and finally straight up through my $60.36 stop the week of 2.12.07. Loss of 4.4%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 2.12.07 at $61.09 with a stop placed at $53.27. Traded as high as $79.21 the week of 7.16.07, then faded and fell below my $64.46 stop the week of 11.5.07. Gain of 5.4%
  
8. Reversed to SHORT the week of 11.5.07 at $64.41 with a $77.41 stop. Moved sideways all the way into March, then suddenly shot up past my $71.51 stop the week of 3.31.08. Loss of -11.2%

9. Reversed to LONG the week of 3.31.08 at $71.60 with a $58.56 stop. Traded up to $79.44 the week of 5.19.08, then bounced around $75 for a month before moving down another step to the $65 range, taking out my $66.26 stop the week of 6.30.08. Loss of -9.2%

10. Reversed to SHORT the week of 6.30.08 at $64.98 with a $77.85 stop. Hung around $60 into early September as the financial crisis was unfolding, then everybody bolted for the exits and the stock plunged all the way to $20.61 the week of 3.2.09. But it actually rebounded pretty quickly and was already back above my $35.28 stop by the week of 4.27.09. Gain of 44.9%

11. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $35.82 with a stop at $22.29. Traded as high as $105.86 the week of 2.14.11, and has held up very well since (much better than a lot of other stocks), closing yesterday at $105.06 with a $90.98 stop. Gain of 193.3%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 6 | 54.5% | $21.49/share avg.
Losing Trades: 5 | 45.5% | -$5.14/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 25.3% | $9.39/share

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