Saturday, March 26, 2011

Cummins Inc. (CMI)

1. LONG the week of 5.19.03 at $7.05 with a $5.60 stop. Traded as high as $19.52 the week of 12.27.04, but ran out of gas, and being such a low volatility stock, it only had to trade down a little to trip my $16.67 stop the week of 3.28.05. Gain of 132.5%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 3.28.05 at $16.39 with my stop at $19.08. Traded sideways in a tight $15-17 range into July, then bounced up a couple of dollars, which was enough to reach my $17.38 stop the week of 7.11.05. Loss of -11.0%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 7.11.05 at $18.20 with a $15.57 stop. The stock was still in reaction mode, which is another way of saying "not trending," so after it briefly traded up to $21.91 in the middle of September, it didn't take long for it to work it's way back down to my stop at $18.54 the week of 10.17.05. Gain of 0.3%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 10.17.05 at $18.25 with a stop at $21.25. Dipped just $0.02 the following week, then slowly traded up just a little bit each week until my $20.93 stop was triggered the week of 11.28.05. Loss of -15.6%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 11.28.05 at $21.09 with an $18.44 stop. Continued to traded sideways into 2006, then gradually began moving up, reaching $32.88 in October.  But while it may have taken the stairs going up, it took the elevator back down, quickly dropping below my $27.92 stop the week of 1.3.07. Gain of 30.4%
  
6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 1.3.07 at $27.50 with a $31.35 stop. Traded down to $26.69 the following week, then quickly reversed direction and jumped past my $31.55 stop the week of 1.29.07. Loss of -20.0%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 1.29.07 at $33.01 with $28.06 for a stop. Steadily traded up to $40 by April, then finally began picking up speed, reaching a high of $72.96 the week of 7.28.08. But then the financial crisis brought it right back down to earth, driving it below my $46.01 stop the week of 9.22.08. Gain of 34.3%

8. Reversed to SHORT the week of 9.22.08 at $44.32 with a $71.90 stop. Immediately crashed down to a low of $17.18 in the middle of November, then rebounded into a $25-30 range before moving up and over my $31.35 stop the week of 4.20.09. Gain of 26.3%

9. Reversed to LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $32.66 with my stop set at $18.82. Once again it traded sideways for a couple of months before picking up steam and quickly moving much higher. Since reaching $114.81 in the middle of January it has slowed down a little, briefly dipping below $100 a couple of weeks ago before closing yesterday at $104.54. The stop has moved up to $91.14. Gain of 220.1%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 6 | 66.7% | $18.44/share avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 33.3% | -$3.39/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 44.1% | $11.17/share

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