Saturday, August 20, 2011

Will the last stock out please turn off all the lights?

This party is just about over.

No trades in the prior week, but this sure was a busy week. I closed out five trades yesterday. 

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Stopped out yesterday at $205.21. The percentage gain on this trade was 587.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $175.34/$10.62 = 16.51.
 
- LONG the week of 7.11.11 at $597.62. With a stop at $500.50 the risk was $97.12. Stopped out yesterday afternoon at $490.92. The percentage loss on this trade was -17.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$106.70/$97.12 = -1.10.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Stoppes out at $111.00. The percentage gain on this trade was 197.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $73.73/$14.23 = 5.18.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Stopped out at $76.76 yesterday at the close. The percentage loss on this trade was -20.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$20.05/$22.19 = -0.90.

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Stopped out yesterday at $41.53. The percentage gain on this trade was 294.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $31.00/$3.97 = 7.81.

Of the stocks that I'm still holding, I'd like to say that both Apple and CF Industries at least still have pretty good cushions, but with the way things are going, probably none of them are truly safe.

Apple (AAPL): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $356.03 with a $327.19 stop. The new stop for the coming week will be $324.22. The percentage gain on this trade is 206.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $240.04/$31.60 = 7.60.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $329.49 with a $316.27 stop. The stop for next week is $316.79. The percentage gain on this trade is 0.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $2.91/$67.30 = 0.04.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed yesterday at $164.81 with a $117.97 stop. My stop for next week will be $120.10. The percentage gain on this trade is 95.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $80.60/$22.19 = 3.63.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 
- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $142.45 with a $132.61 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $130.81. The percentage gain on this trade is 12.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $15.77/$23.49 = 0.67.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed the week at $131.34 with a $120.45 stop. The new stop will be $118.16. The percentage gain on this trade is 256.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $94.46/$21.60 = 4.37.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed yesterday at $126.98 with a $111.96 stop. The stop for this week moves down slightly to $106.85. The percentage gain on this trade is 593.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $108.66/$6.98 = 15.57.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $50.65 with a $47.14 stop. The new stop for next week is $46.97. The percentage gain on this trade is 34.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $12.85/$8.72 = 1.47.

Crocs (CROX): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $23.33 with a $21.32 stop. The new stop is $19.97. The percentage gain on this trade is 825.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $20.81/$2.05 = 10.17.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed yesterday at $73.28 with a $69.50 stop. The stop for this coming week is $64.41. The percentage gain on this trade is 207.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $49.48/$8.69 = 5.70.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Next Stop, All Cash?

I was knocked out of four more stocks last week...

Boeing (BA): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $43.65. I used $32.10 for my stop, so the risk was $11.55. Closed last week at $62.57, well below my $69.11 stop. The percentage gain on this trade was 43.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $19.10/$11.55 = 1.65.

Diamond Offshore (DO):
- LONG the week of 1.3.11 at $70.57. Using $57.65 for my stop, the risk was $12.92. Closed last week at $62.24, not even close to my $67.35 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -11.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$8.33/$12.92 = -0.64.

Citrix Systems (CTXS): 
- LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $27.51. My stop was $19.55, so that makes the risk $7.96. Closed last week below my $69.09 stop at $64.41. The percentage gain on this trade was 134.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $36.90/$7.96 = 4.64.

Joy Global (JOYG): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $29.80. My stop was set at $17.74, so my R = $12.06. Closed last week at $79.56, just $0.53 below my $80.09 stop. The percentage gain on this trade was 167.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $49.76/$12.06 = 4.13.

... and with the way things are going, I could very easily be out of Intuitive Surgical, Netflix, Precision Castparts, Salesforce.com, Potash Corporation, VMWare, and Shutterfly by the end of this week. 

Updates on the positions I'm still holding:

Apple (AAPL): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $373.62 with a $337.31 stop. The new stop for this week is $329.48. The percentage gain on this trade is 222.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $257.63/$31.60 = 8.15.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $358.57 with a $334.85 stop. The new stop for this week is $319.56. The percentage gain on this trade is 9.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $31.99/$67.30 = 0.48.

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Closed last week at $241.11 with a $227.37 stop. The stop for this week drops slightly to $222.87. The percentage gain on this trade is 707.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $211.24/$10.62 = 19.90.

- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $149.30 with a $140.30 stop. The new stop for this week is $135.84. The percentage gain on this trade is 17.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $22.62/$23.49 = 0.96.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed last week at $139.91 with a $130.41 stop. The stop for this week is $124.49. The percentage gain on this trade is 279.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $103.03/$21.60 = 4.77.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed Friday at $146.66 with a $122.64 stop. The stop for the week is $118.86. The percentage gain on this trade is 74.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $62.45/$22.19 = 2.81.

- LONG the week of 7.11.11 at $597.62. With a stop at $500.50 the risk was $97.12. Closed Friday at $579.04 with a $526.27 stop. The new stop for this week is $516.48. The percentage loss on this trade is -3.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$18.58/$97.12 = -0.19.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Closed last week at $135.69 with a $126.28 stop. The stop for this week is $122.49. The percentage gain on this trade is 264.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $98.42/$14.23 = 6.92.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed last week at $140.99 with a $122.80 stop. The stop for this week moves down to $116.05. The percentage gain on this trade is 669.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $122.67/$6.98 = 17.58.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $53.09 with a $50.00 stop. The new stop for this week is $47.89. The percentage gain on this trade is 40.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $15.29/$8.72 = 1.75.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed last week at $91.12 with a $77.12 stop. The stop for this week is $72.60. The percentage gain on this trade is 282.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $67.32/$8.69 = 7.75.

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $28.64 with a $24.10 stop. The new stop for this week is $22.68. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,036.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $26.12/$2.05 = 12.76.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Closed last week at $87.28 with an $84.03 stop. The stop for this week falls to $79.73. The percentage loss on this trade is -9.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$9.53/$22.19 = -0.43.

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Closed Friday at $46.96 with a $45.56 stop. The stop for the week is $43.70. The percentage gain on this trade is 346.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $36.43/$3.97 = 9.17.