Will the last stock out please turn off all the lights?

This party is just about over.

No trades in the prior week, but this sure was a busy week. I closed out five trades yesterday. 

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Stopped out yesterday at $205.21. The percentage gain on this trade was 587.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $175.34/$10.62 = 16.51.
 

Google (GOOG): 

- LONG the week of 7.11.11 at $597.62. With a stop at $500.50 the risk was $97.12. Stopped out yesterday afternoon at $490.92. The percentage loss on this trade was -17.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$106.70/$97.12 = -1.10.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Stoppes out at $111.00. The percentage gain on this trade was 197.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $73.73/$14.23 = 5.18.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Stopped out at $76.76 yesterday at the close. The percentage loss on this trade was -20.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$20.05/$22.19 = -0.90.

Shutterfly (SFLY): 

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Stopped out yesterday at $41.53. The percentage gain on this trade was 294.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $31.00/$3.97 = 7.81.

Of the stocks that I'm still holding, I'd like to say that both Apple and CF Industries at least still have pretty good cushions, but with the way things are going, probably none of them are truly safe.

Apple (AAPL): 

- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $356.03 with a $327.19 stop. The new stop for the coming week will be $324.22. The percentage gain on this trade is 206.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $240.04/$31.60 = 7.60.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): 

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $329.49 with a $316.27 stop. The stop for next week is $316.79. The percentage gain on this trade is 0.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $2.91/$67.30 = 0.04.

CF Industries (CF): 

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed yesterday at $164.81 with a $117.97 stop. My stop for next week will be $120.10. The percentage gain on this trade is 95.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $80.60/$22.19 = 3.63.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 

- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $142.45 with a $132.61 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $130.81. The percentage gain on this trade is 12.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $15.77/$23.49 = 0.67.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed the week at $131.34 with a $120.45 stop. The new stop will be $118.16. The percentage gain on this trade is 256.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $94.46/$21.60 = 4.37.

Baidu (BIDU): 

- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed yesterday at $126.98 with a $111.96 stop. The stop for this week moves down slightly to $106.85. The percentage gain on this trade is 593.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $108.66/$6.98 = 15.57.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $50.65 with a $47.14 stop. The new stop for next week is $46.97. The percentage gain on this trade is 34.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $12.85/$8.72 = 1.47.

Crocs (CROX): 

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $23.33 with a $21.32 stop. The new stop is $19.97. The percentage gain on this trade is 825.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $20.81/$2.05 = 10.17.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed yesterday at $73.28 with a $69.50 stop. The stop for this coming week is $64.41. The percentage gain on this trade is 207.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $49.48/$8.69 = 5.70.

Next Stop, All Cash?

I was knocked out of four more stocks last week...

Boeing (BA): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $43.65. I used $32.10 for my stop, so the risk was $11.55. Closed last week at $62.57, well below my $69.11 stop. The percentage gain on this trade was 43.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $19.10/$11.55 = 1.65.

Diamond Offshore (DO):
- LONG the week of 1.3.11 at $70.57. Using $57.65 for my stop, the risk was $12.92. Closed last week at $62.24, not even close to my $67.35 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -11.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$8.33/$12.92 = -0.64.

Citrix Systems (CTXS): 
- LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $27.51. My stop was $19.55, so that makes the risk $7.96. Closed last week below my $69.09 stop at $64.41. The percentage gain on this trade was 134.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $36.90/$7.96 = 4.64.

Joy Global (JOYG): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $29.80. My stop was set at $17.74, so my R = $12.06. Closed last week at $79.56, just $0.53 below my $80.09 stop. The percentage gain on this trade was 167.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $49.76/$12.06 = 4.13.

... and with the way things are going, I could very easily be out of Intuitive Surgical, Netflix, Precision Castparts, Salesforce.com, Potash Corporation, VMWare, and Shutterfly by the end of this week. 

Updates on the positions I'm still holding:

Apple (AAPL): 

- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $373.62 with a $337.31 stop. The new stop for this week is $329.48. The percentage gain on this trade is 222.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $257.63/$31.60 = 8.15.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): 

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $358.57 with a $334.85 stop. The new stop for this week is $319.56. The percentage gain on this trade is 9.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $31.99/$67.30 = 0.48.

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Closed last week at $241.11 with a $227.37 stop. The stop for this week drops slightly to $222.87. The percentage gain on this trade is 707.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $211.24/$10.62 = 19.90.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 

- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $149.30 with a $140.30 stop. The new stop for this week is $135.84. The percentage gain on this trade is 17.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $22.62/$23.49 = 0.96.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed last week at $139.91 with a $130.41 stop. The stop for this week is $124.49. The percentage gain on this trade is 279.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $103.03/$21.60 = 4.77.

CF Industries (CF): 

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed Friday at $146.66 with a $122.64 stop. The stop for the week is $118.86. The percentage gain on this trade is 74.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $62.45/$22.19 = 2.81.

Google (GOOG): 

- LONG the week of 7.11.11 at $597.62. With a stop at $500.50 the risk was $97.12. Closed Friday at $579.04 with a $526.27 stop. The new stop for this week is $516.48. The percentage loss on this trade is -3.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$18.58/$97.12 = -0.19.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Closed last week at $135.69 with a $126.28 stop. The stop for this week is $122.49. The percentage gain on this trade is 264.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $98.42/$14.23 = 6.92.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed last week at $140.99 with a $122.80 stop. The stop for this week moves down to $116.05. The percentage gain on this trade is 669.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $122.67/$6.98 = 17.58.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $53.09 with a $50.00 stop. The new stop for this week is $47.89. The percentage gain on this trade is 40.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $15.29/$8.72 = 1.75.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed last week at $91.12 with a $77.12 stop. The stop for this week is $72.60. The percentage gain on this trade is 282.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $67.32/$8.69 = 7.75.

Crocs (CROX): 

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $28.64 with a $24.10 stop. The new stop for this week is $22.68. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,036.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $26.12/$2.05 = 12.76.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Closed last week at $87.28 with an $84.03 stop. The stop for this week falls to $79.73. The percentage loss on this trade is -9.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$9.53/$22.19 = -0.43.

Shutterfly (SFLY): 

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Closed Friday at $46.96 with a $45.56 stop. The stop for the week is $43.70. The percentage gain on this trade is 346.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $36.43/$3.97 = 9.17.

Out of Acme Packet with a 993% gain

Last week was a bad week. Crox (+10.9% for the week), Deckers Outdoor (+2.9%), and Baidu (+2.0%) were my lone bright spots. Everything else I own was down.

But as bad as it was, there was actually only one change to my portfolio: I was stopped out of Acme Packet Friday afternoon at the close.

Acme Packet (APKT): 

- LONG the week of 3.9.09 at $5.39. Placing my stop at $2.89 the R was just $2.50. Closed Friday at $58.92, just $0.52 below its $59.44 stop. The percentage gain on this trade was 993.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $60.31/$2.50 = 21.42.

All in all... not a bad trade.

On to the updates. 

 

Two stocks I'll be watching very closely this week are Boeing and Diamond Offshore, trading just $1.36 and $0.48 away from their respective stops. 

Apple (AAPL): 

- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $390.48 with a $338.23 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $337.31. The percentage gain on this trade is 236.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $274.49/$31.60 = 8.69.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): 

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $400.55 with a $333.33 stop. The new stop for the coming week is $334.85. The percentage gain on this trade is 22.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $73.97/$67.30 = 1.10.

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Closed last week at $265.99 with a $233.09 stop. The stop for this week drops slightly to $227.37. The percentage gain on this trade is 709.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $236.12/$10.62 = 22.24.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 

- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $161.38 with a $141.23 stop. The new stop for this week is $140.30. The percentage gain on this trade is 27.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $34.70/$23.49 = 1.48.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed last week at $153.68 with a $132.39 stop. The stop for this week will be $130.41. The percentage gain on this trade is 316.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $116.80/$21.60 = 5.41.

CF Industries (CF): 

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed Friday at $155.32 with a $121.85 stop. The stop for the coming week is $122.64. The percentage gain on this trade is 84.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $71.11/$22.19 = 3.21.

Google (GOOG): 

- LONG the week of 7.11.11 at $597.62. With a stop at $500.50 the risk was $97.12. Closed Friday at $603.69 with a $523.19 stop. The new stop for this week moves up to $526.27. The percentage gain on this trade is 1.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $6.07/$97.12 = 0.06.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Closed last week at $144.71 with a $126.71 stop. The stop for this week will be $126.28. The percentage gain on this trade is 288.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $107.44/$14.23 = 7.55.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed last week at $157.07 with a $120.83 stop. The stop for this week moves up to $122.80. The percentage gain on this trade is 757.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $138.75/$6.98 = 19.88.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $57.81 with a $50.67 stop. The new stop for this week is $50.00. The percentage gain on this trade is 52.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $20.01/$8.72 = 2.29.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed last week at $99.25 with a $76.61 stop. The stop for this week will be $77.12. The percentage gain on this trade is 317.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $75.45/$8.69 = 8.69.

Crocs (CROX): 

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $31.33 with a $22.38 stop. The new stop for this week jumps to $24.10. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,143.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $28.81/$2.05 = 14.08.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Closed last week at $100.34 with an $84.90 stop. The stop for this week will be $84.03. The percentage gain on this trade is 3.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $3.53/$22.19 = 0.16.

Shutterfly (SFLY): 

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Closed Friday at $54.40 with a $46.62 stop. The stop for the coming week is $45.56. The percentage gain on this trade is 416.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $43.87/$3.97 = 11.05.

Boeing (BA): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $43.65. I used $32.10 for my stop, so the risk was $11.55. Closed last week at $70.47 with a $69.30 stop. The new stop will be $69.11. The percentage gain on this trade is 61.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $26.82/$11.55 = 2.32.

Citrix Systems (CTXS): 
- LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $27.51. My stop was $19.55, so that makes the risk $7.96. Closed last week at $72.04 with a $69.01 stop. The new stop is $69.09. The percentage gain on this trade is 161.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $44.53/$7.96 = 5.59.

Diamond Offshore (DO):
- LONG the week of 1.3.11 at $70.57. Using $57.65 for my stop, the risk was $12.92. Closed last week at $70.79 with a $67.74 stop. The stop for this week will be $67.35. The percentage loss on this trade is -3.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$2.74/$12.92 = -0.21.

Joy Global (JOYG): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $29.80. My stop was set at $17.74, so my R = $12.06. Closed last week at $93.92 with an $81.79 stop. The stop for this week is $80.09. The percentage gain on this trade is 215.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $64.12/$12.06 = 5.32.

Trading Without a Net

Honestly, trading with no short positions makes me feel like a tightrope walker working without a net.

At least the Google trade we talked about last week is off to a pretty good start.

Of course, it's only been a week...

But we'll go ahead and add it to the mix along with a quick update on all of our other open positions.

Apple (AAPL): 

- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $393.30 with a $316.35 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week jumps all the way to $338.23. The percentage gain on this trade is 239.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $277.31/$31.60 = 8.77.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): 

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $405.10 with a $325.81 stop. The new stop for the coming week is $333.33. The percentage gain on this trade is 24.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $78.52/$67.30 = 1.17.

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Closed last week at $276.58 with a $232.13 stop. The stop for this week will be $233.21. The percentage gain on this trade is 825.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $246.71/$10.62 = 23.24.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 

- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $165.40 with a $142.14 stop. The new stop for this week is $141.23. The percentage gain on this trade is 30.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $38.72/$23.49 = 1.65.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed last week at $165.25 with a $131.73 stop. The stop for this week will be $132.39. The percentage gain on this trade is 348.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $128.37/$21.60 = 5.94.

CF Industries (CF): 

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed Friday at $160.25 with a $116.32 stop. The stop for the coming week is $121.85. The percentage gain on this trade is 90.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $76.04/$22.19 = 3.43.

Google (GOOG): 

- LONG the week of 7.11.11 at $597.62. With a stop at $500.50 the risk was $97.12. Closed Friday at $618.23, and the stop for the coming week moves up to $523.19. The percentage gain on this trade is 3.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $20.61/$97.12 = 0.21.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Closed last week at $150.41 with a $128.65 stop. The stop for this week will be $126.71. The percentage gain on this trade is 303.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $113.14/$14.23 = 7.95.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed last week at $154.00 with a $115.40 stop. The stop for this week moves up to $120.83. The percentage gain on this trade is 740.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $135.68/$6.98 = 19.44.

Acme Packet (APKT): 

- LONG the week of 3.9.09 at $5.39. Placing my stop at $2.89 the R was just $2.50. Closed Friday at $65.70 with a $60.56 stop. The new stop for the coming week will be $59.44. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,118.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $60.31/$2.50 = 24.13.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $61.64 with a $50.70 stop. The new stop for this week is $50.67. The percentage gain on this trade is 63.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $23.84/$8.72 = 2.73.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed last week at $96.42 with a $75.94 stop. The stop for this week will be $76.61. The percentage gain on this trade is 305.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $72.62/$8.69 = 8.36.

Crocs (CROX): 

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $28.24 with a $21.89 stop. The new stop for this week is going to be $22.38. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,020.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $25.72/$2.05 = 12.57.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Closed last week at $106.72 with an $84.99 stop. The stop for this week drops slightly to $84.90. The percentage gain on this trade is 10.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $9.91/$22.19 = 0.45.

Shutterfly (SFLY): 

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Closed Friday at $60.26 with a $45.44 stop. The stop for the coming week is $46.62. The percentage gain on this trade is 472.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $49.73/$3.97 = 12.52.

Boeing (BA): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $43.65. I used $32.10 for my stop, so the risk was $11.55. Closed last week at $72.67 with a $69.67 stop. The new stop will be $69.30. The percentage gain on this trade is 66.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $29.02/$11.55 = 2.51.

Citrix Systems (CTXS): 
- LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $27.51. My stop was $19.55, so that makes the risk $7.96. Closed last week at $75.27 with a $69.00 stop. The new stop is $69.01. The percentage gain on this trade is 173.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $47.76/$7.96 = 6.00.

Diamond Offshore (DO):
- LONG the week of 1.3.11 at $70.57. Using $57.65 for my stop, the risk was $12.92. Closed last week at $70.79 with a $67.74 stop. The stop for this week will be $67.50. The percentage gain on this trade is 0.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $0.22/$12.92 = 0.02.

Joy Global (JOYG): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $29.80. My stop was set at $17.74, so my R = $12.06. Closed last week at $99.85 with an $82.16 stop. The stop for this week is $81.79. The percentage gain on this trade is 235.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $70.05/$12.06 = 5.81.

Buying Google at $600?

Yes.

The only new position I added to my portfolio this week is Google, just shy of $600/share.

My signal to go long coming into the week was $550.82, but it's not like there was any chance of getting in at that price. After closing at $528.94 and then announcing huge Q2 earnings after the bell on Thursday,  it opened at $597.50 yesterday. So all in all, I was relatively happy to get in a few pennies shy of $597.62 at the close.

My initial stop for the trade is going to be $500.50, and using my 1% risk model the position will carry a total portfolio weight of 5.98%.

One other thing to think about: if I was trading my daily model on Google I would have taken a long signal back on June 30th at $506.38 (with a $476.35 stop) and I'd already be sitting on a nice 18.0% gain. 

The stop for that model would be $535.13 for Monday. 
 

Never Confuse Brains with a Bull Market

Of course, I do it all the time. 

I've been doing it for more than two years.

This is just a quick update on all of the positions I'm holding right now.

Apple (AAPL): 

- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $359.71 with a $312.19 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $311.52. The percentage gain on this trade is 210.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $243.72/$31.60 = 7.71.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): 

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $368.70 with a $326.26 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $324.24. The percentage gain on this trade is 12.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $42.12/$67.30 = 0.63.

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Closed last week at $295.14 with a $216.13 stop. The stop for this week will be $233.21. The percentage gain on this trade is 888.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $265.27/$10.62 = 24.98.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 

- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $162.79 with a $141.86 stop. The new stop for this week is $141.02. The percentage gain on this trade is 28.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $36.11/$23.49 = 1.54.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed last week at $161.15 with a $118.18 stop. The stop for this week jumps to $128.53. The percentage gain on this trade is 337.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $124.27/$21.60 = 5.75.

CF Industries (CF): 

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed Friday at $149.01 with a $114.64 stop. The stop for the coming week is $115.71. The percentage gain on this trade is 77.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $64.80/$22.19 = 2.92.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Closed last week at $156.67 with a $122.82 stop. The stop for this week will be $127.31. The percentage gain on this trade is 320.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $119.40/$14.23 = 8.39.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed last week at $147.78 with a $113.18 stop. The new stop will be $114.90. The percentage gain on this trade is 706.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $129.46/$6.98 = 18.55.

Acme Packet (APKT): 

- LONG the week of 3.9.09 at $5.39. Placing my stop at $2.89 the R was just $2.50. Closed Friday at $72.27 with a $59.64 stop. The new stop for the coming week will be $61.02. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,240.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $66.88/$2.50 = 26.76.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $59.19 with a $49.53 stop. The new stop for this week is $49.97. The percentage gain on this trade is 56.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $21.39/$8.72 = 2.45.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed last week at $95.18 with a $75.25 stop. The stop for this week will be $75.34. The percentage gain on this trade is 299.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $71.38/$8.69 = 8.22.

Crocs (CROX): 

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $27.47 with a $20.81 stop. The new stop for this week is going to be $21.82. The percentage gain on this trade is 990.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $24.95/$2.05 = 12.19.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Closed last week at $105.00 with a $79.01 stop. The stop for this week jumps up to $84.40. The percentage gain on this trade is 8.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $8.19/$22.19 = 0.37.

Shutterfly (SFLY): 

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Closed Friday at $63.10 with a $43.76 stop. The stop for the coming week is $45.63. The percentage gain on this trade is 499.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $52.57/$3.97 = 13.24.

Boeing (BA): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $43.65. I used $32.10 for my stop, so the risk was $11.55. Closed last week at $75.07 with a $69.65 stop. The new stop will be $70.09. The percentage gain on this trade is 72.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $31.42/$11.55 = 2.72.

Citrix Systems (CTXS): 
- LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $27.51. My stop was $19.55, so that makes the risk $7.96. Closed last week at $82.98 with a $69.88 stop. The new stop is $70.61. The percentage gain on this trade is 201.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $55.47/$7.96 = 6.97.

Diamond Offshore (DO):
- LONG the week of 1.3.11 at $70.57. Using $57.65 for my stop, the risk was $12.92. Closed last week at $70.71 with a $66.57 stop. The stop for this week will be $67.32. The percentage gain on this trade is 0.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $0.14/$12.92 = 0.01.

Joy Global (JOYG): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $29.80. My stop was set at $17.74, so my R = $12.06. Closed last week at $97.25 with an $80.17 stop. The stop for this week is $81.47. The percentage gain on this trade is 226.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $67.45/$12.06 = 5.59.

No More Short Selling

I covered all of my shorts last week. 

Six were gains: Google, Mosaic, Research In Motion, Cimarex Energy, Transocean, and Akamai Technologies; and eight were losses - CME Group, Riverbed Technology, Cognizant Technology Solutions, F5 Networks, Cummins, Priceline.com, Caterpillar, and Aruba Networks.

I didn't cover in any kind of panic over the direction the market was taking, but I was eager to eliminate each and every one of my short positions once I completed a research project I'd been working on for the last month. 

After studying all 198 trades I've made over the last 8 years, I determined that short selling was clearly doing my portfolio more harm than good.

Here's a quick look at the actual performance:

Total trades: 198

Winning Trades: 122 | 61.6%

Losing Trades: 76 | 38.4%

Avg. Winning Trade: $40.77

Avg. Losing Trade: -$10.66

Avg. Trade: Gain of 71.6% | $20.12 | Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R): 2.51

Now, what if I had taken only the long signals?

Total trades : 102

Winning Trades: 78 | 76.5%

Losing Trades: 24 | 23.5%

Avg. Winning Trade: $49.60

Avg. Losing Trade: -$10.35

Avg. Trade: Gain of 140.0% | $35.30 | Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R): 4.96

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results... but for the foreseeable future (at least the balance of 2011), I'm going to try running a long only portfolio and we'll see what happens.

Just for the record, this leaves me long Apple, Intuitive Surgical, Precision Castparts, CF Industries, Crocs, Wynn Resorts, Netflix, Salesforce.com, Boeing, Potash Corporation, Shutterfly, Baidu, Acme Packet, Diamond Offshore, VMware, Deckers Outdoor, Citrix Systems, and Joy Global.