Monday, May 23, 2011

CF Industries (CF)

Our return on investment trading CF Industries is 1,079.5% since late 2006, while a basic buy-and-hold strategy over the same period would have realized a gain of 676.4%, so we've added a little bit of value here.



1. LONG the week of 10.2.06 at $17.91. My initial stop was at $14.99, so the risk (R) on the trade was $2.92. Stopped out and reversed to short at $90.78 the week of 9.22.08. The percentage gain on the trade was 406.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $72.87/$2.92 = 24.97.

2. SHORT the week of 9.22.08 at $90.78. Using $164.45 for my stop, R = $73.67. Stopped out and reversed to long the week of 3.23.09 at $72.76. The percentage gain on the trade was 19.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $18.02/$73.67 = 0.24.

3. LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $72.76. With the stop set at $45.63 the risk was $27.13. Stopped out and reversed to short at $84.88 the week of 4.19.10. The percentage gain on the trade was 16.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $12.12/$27.13 = 0.45.

4. SHORT the week of 4.19.10 at $84.88. The stop was $102.29, so my risk was $17.41. Stopped out and reversed to long at $84.21 the week of 8.2.10. The percentage gain on the trade was 0.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $0.67/$17.41 = 0.04.

5. LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With the stop set at $62.02 my risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed last week at $139.06 with a $115.27 stop. The percentage gain on this trade is 65.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $54.85/$22.19 = 2.47.

Bottom Line:
Winning Trades: 5 | 100.0% | $31.71/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share
Average Trade: Gain of 101.9% | $31.71/share | Reward-to-Risk Ratio (R): 5.63

No comments:

Post a Comment