Saturday, April 9, 2011

Is Intuitive Surgical a $400 stock?


I think it is. We'll probably find out sometime between now and Tuesday, April 19th when they announce First Quarter 2011 earnings. 

1. LONG the week of 3.24.03 at $13.50. The stop was $6.82, so the initial risk (R) on the trade was $6.68. Stopped out and reversed to short at $94.81 the week of 2.21.06. The percentage gain on the trade was 602.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $81.31/$6.82 = 12.18.



2. SHORT the week of 2.21.06 at $94.81. Using $132.27 for a stop, R = $37.46. Stopped out and reversed to long at $127.00 the week of 4.24.06. The percentage loss on the trade was -34.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$32.19/$37.46 = -0.86.

3. LONG the week of 4.24.06 at $127.00. With the stop set at $89.02 the R was $37.98. Stopped out and reversed to short at $92.10 the week of 8.21.06. The percentage loss on the trade was -27.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$34.90/$37.98 = -0.92.

4. SHORT the week of 8.21.06 at $92.10. The stop was $123.34, so R = $31.24. Stopped out and reversed to long at $116.77 the week of 1.29.07. The percentage loss on the trade was -26.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$24.67/$31.24 = -0.79.

5. LONG the week of 1.29.07 at $116.77. With $91.97 for a stop the R on the trade was $24.80. Stopped out and reversed to short at $269.59 the week of 6.23.08. The percentage gain on the trade was 130.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $152.82/$24.80 = 6.16.

6. SHORT the week of 6.23.08 at $269.59.  The stop was $338.79, so that means R was $69.20. Stopped out and reversed to long the week of 4.20.09 at $150.24. The percentage gain on this trade was 44.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $119.35/$69.20 = 1.72.

7. LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $150.24. The stop was $98.60, so the R was $51.64. Stopped out and reversed to short at $273.07 the week of 8.23.10. The percentage gain on the trade was 81.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $122.83/$51.64 = 2.38.

8. SHORT the week of 8.23.10 at $273.07. The initial stop was $351.99, so R = $78.92. Stopped out and reversed to long at $326.58 the week of 1.18.11. The percentage loss on the trade was -19.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$53.51/$78.92 = -0.68.

9. LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. With the stop set at $259.28 the R was $67.30. Closed yesterday at $367.67 with a $289.74 stop. The percentage gain on this trade is 12.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $41.09/$67.30 = 0.61.

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 5 | 55.6% | $103.48/share avg.
Losing Trades: 4 | 44.4% | -$36.32/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 84.9% | $41.35/share | Reward-to-Risk Ratio (R): 2.20

No comments:

Post a Comment