Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Next Stop, All Cash?

I was knocked out of four more stocks last week...

Boeing (BA): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $43.65. I used $32.10 for my stop, so the risk was $11.55. Closed last week at $62.57, well below my $69.11 stop. The percentage gain on this trade was 43.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $19.10/$11.55 = 1.65.

Diamond Offshore (DO):
- LONG the week of 1.3.11 at $70.57. Using $57.65 for my stop, the risk was $12.92. Closed last week at $62.24, not even close to my $67.35 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -11.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$8.33/$12.92 = -0.64.

Citrix Systems (CTXS): 
- LONG the week of 4.27.09 at $27.51. My stop was $19.55, so that makes the risk $7.96. Closed last week below my $69.09 stop at $64.41. The percentage gain on this trade was 134.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $36.90/$7.96 = 4.64.

Joy Global (JOYG): 
- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $29.80. My stop was set at $17.74, so my R = $12.06. Closed last week at $79.56, just $0.53 below my $80.09 stop. The percentage gain on this trade was 167.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $49.76/$12.06 = 4.13.

... and with the way things are going, I could very easily be out of Intuitive Surgical, Netflix, Precision Castparts, Salesforce.com, Potash Corporation, VMWare, and Shutterfly by the end of this week. 

Updates on the positions I'm still holding:

Apple (AAPL): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $373.62 with a $337.31 stop. The new stop for this week is $329.48. The percentage gain on this trade is 222.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $257.63/$31.60 = 8.15.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $358.57 with a $334.85 stop. The new stop for this week is $319.56. The percentage gain on this trade is 9.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $31.99/$67.30 = 0.48.

Netflix (NFLX):
- LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. Using $19.25 for my stop, the risk was $10.62. Closed last week at $241.11 with a $227.37 stop. The stop for this week drops slightly to $222.87. The percentage gain on this trade is 707.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $211.24/$10.62 = 19.90.

- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $149.30 with a $140.30 stop. The new stop for this week is $135.84. The percentage gain on this trade is 17.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $22.62/$23.49 = 0.96.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Closed last week at $139.91 with a $130.41 stop. The stop for this week is $124.49. The percentage gain on this trade is 279.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $103.03/$21.60 = 4.77.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Closed Friday at $146.66 with a $122.64 stop. The stop for the week is $118.86. The percentage gain on this trade is 74.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $62.45/$22.19 = 2.81.

- LONG the week of 7.11.11 at $597.62. With a stop at $500.50 the risk was $97.12. Closed Friday at $579.04 with a $526.27 stop. The new stop for this week is $516.48. The percentage loss on this trade is -3.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$18.58/$97.12 = -0.19.

Salesforce.com (CRM): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $37.27. I put my stop at $23.04, so the R for this trade was $14.23. Closed last week at $135.69 with a $126.28 stop. The stop for this week is $122.49. The percentage gain on this trade is 264.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $98.42/$14.23 = 6.92.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Closed last week at $140.99 with a $122.80 stop. The stop for this week moves down to $116.05. The percentage gain on this trade is 669.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $122.67/$6.98 = 17.58.

Potash Corporation (POT): 
- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Closed last week at $53.09 with a $50.00 stop. The new stop for this week is $47.89. The percentage gain on this trade is 40.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $15.29/$8.72 = 1.75.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK):
- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed last week at $91.12 with a $77.12 stop. The stop for this week is $72.60. The percentage gain on this trade is 282.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $67.32/$8.69 = 7.75.

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $28.64 with a $24.10 stop. The new stop for this week is $22.68. The percentage gain on this trade is 1,036.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $26.12/$2.05 = 12.76.

VMware (VMW): 
- LONG the week of 4.18.11 at $96.81. My stop was set at $74.62, so my R = $22.19. Closed last week at $87.28 with an $84.03 stop. The stop for this week falls to $79.73. The percentage loss on this trade is -9.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$9.53/$22.19 = -0.43.

- LONG the week of 4.6.09 at $10.53. With a stop at $6.56 the risk on the trade was just $3.97. Closed Friday at $46.96 with a $45.56 stop. The stop for the week is $43.70. The percentage gain on this trade is 346.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $36.43/$3.97 = 9.17.

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