Sunday, October 2, 2011

Next Stop, All Cash? Part 2

Two weeks ago I posted that it looked like a quite week ahead.

Boy was I ever wrong.

Stopped out of Potash Corporation that very week, and then CF Industries, Wynn Resorts, and Baidu this past week.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $37.80. I used $29.08 for a stop, so the risk was $8.72. Stopped out last Friday afternoon at $45.89. The percentage gain on this trade was 21.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $8.09/$8.72 = 0.93.

- LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $84.21. With a stop at $62.02 the risk on the trade was $22.19. Stopped out at $123.39. The percentage gain on this trade was 46.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $39.18/$22.19 = 1.77.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): 
- LONG the week of 4.20.09 at $36.88. My stop was $15.28, so my R = $21.60. Stopped out Friday at $115.08. The percentage gain on this trade was 212.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $78.20/$21.60 = 3.62.

Baidu (BIDU): 
- LONG the week of 3.23.09 at $18.32. I used $11.34 as my stop, so the risk was $6.98. Stopped out at $106.91. The percentage gain on this trade was 483.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $88.59/$6.98 = 12.69.

There's not much left now...

Apple (AAPL): 
- LONG the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My initial stop was $84.39, so the risk (R) on the trade was $31.60. Closed Friday at $400.50 with a $323.84 stop. My new stop for the coming week will be $328.70. The percentage gain on this trade is 245.3%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $284.51/$31.60 = 9.00.

- LONG the week of 1.18.11 at $326.58. I used $259.28 for my stop, so the R was $67.30. Closed Friday at $364.28 with a $305.35 stop. The stop for the this week is $306.28. The percentage gain on this trade is 11.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $37.70/$67.30 = 0.56.

Precision Castparts (PCP): 
- LONG the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My stop was $103.19, so I risked $23.49. Closed Friday at $155.46 with a $128.25 stop. The new stop for the upcoming week is $126.52. The percentage gain on this trade is 22.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $28.78/$23.49 = 1.23.

- LONG the week of 6.8.09 at $23.80. Using $15.11 for my first stop, the risk was $8.69. Closed Friday at $93.16 with a $65.72 stop. My stop for the coming week will drop by one dollar to $64.72. The percentage gain on this trade is 291.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $69.36/$8.69 = 7.98.

- LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $2.52. My stop was $0.47, so I risked all of $2.05. Closed Friday at $23.68 with a $19.95 stop. The new stop is going to be $19.07. The percentage gain on this trade is 839.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $21.16/$2.05 = 10.34.

Of course, this list would be just a little longer if I'd pulled the trigger on the following trades (too bad I didn't):

- LONG signal the week of 3.30.09 at $5.10 (split adjusted). My stop would have been $2.29, so the risk was $2.81. Closed Friday at $48.69 with a $41.04 stop. The new stop going forward would be $40.18. The percentage gain on this trade would be 854.7% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $43.59/$2.81 = 15.49.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR):
- LONG signal the week of 9.7.10 at $34.19. The initial stop would have been $23.51, so the risk was $10.68. Closed Friday at $92.94 with a $69.45 stop. The stop for this week will be $67.35. The percentage gain on this trade would currently stand at 171.8% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $58.75/$10.68 = 5.50.

Mastercard (MA):
- LONG signal the week of 10.18.10 at $242.64. My stop would have been at $202.75, so the risk was $39.89. Closed Friday at $317.16 with a $260.66 stop. The stop for the coming week will be $259.50. The percentage gain on this trade would be 30.7% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $74.52/$39.89 = 1.87.

Amazon (AMZN):
- LONG signal the week of 8.30.10 at $138.79. My stop would have been $108.64, so the risk was $30.15. Closed Friday at $216.23 with a $178.69 stop. The stop for the coming week will be $178.52. The percentage gain on this trade would be 55.8% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $77.44/$30.15 = 2.57.

I never pulled the trigger on any of these four trades, but I do feel compelled to mention them here simply because they are the only other long signals that I currently have among all of the hundreds of stocks that I follow. Everything else is out and trading a long way from a buy signal.

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