Saturday, April 2, 2011

priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN)

1. LONG the week of 3.17.03 at $10.86 with a stop at $6.43. By late August it had traded all the way up to $39.81 , and then it fell just as quickly, tripping my $26.85 stop the week of 11.3.03. Gain of 91.3%




2. Reversed to SHORT the week of 11.3.03 at $20.78 with a $35.67 stop. Dipped to $16.12 in the middle of December, then gradually traded back up through the spring of 2004, rising to meet my $25.76 stop the week of 3.22.04. Loss of -25.1%

3. Reversed to LONG the week of 3.22.04 at $26.00 with my $17.04 stop. Continued to advance slowly into June, reaching a high of $29.52 the week of 6.21.04, then lost its momentum and drifted downward past my $22.39 stop the week of 8.2.04. Loss of -29.2%

4. Reversed to SHORT the week of 8.2.04 at $18.40 with a stop at $26.57. Dropped just a few pennies to $18.12 the following week, then traded in a tight $20-23 range into October before jumping up and over my $24.30 stop in the second week of November. Loss of -32.9%

5. Reversed to LONG the week of 11.8.04 at $24.46 with an $18.05 stop. Stuck in reaction mode, which is another way of saying "not trending," the stock bounced around between $20-25 all the way through the summer of 2005, then dropped all at once below my $21.45 stop the week of 8.22.05. Loss of -14.0%

6. Reversed to SHORT the week of 8.22.05 at $21.03 with $25.82 for a stop. Traded down just a little further to $18.20 two months later, then shot straight up and through my $23.07 stop the following week. Loss of -16.4%

7. Reversed to LONG the week of 10.31.05 at $24.48 with a stop placed at $17.93. Traded sideways into the spring of 2006, then gradually began a climb that would take it all the way up to $144.34 the week of 5.5.08. It drifted downwards to around $130 in June before plunging through my $97.90 stop the week of 8.4.08. Gain of 290.4%
  
8. Reversed to SHORT the week of 8.4.08 at $95.58 with a $141.13 stop. By mid October the price had been more than cut in half to $45.15. But it didn't stay down long. It was already back at my $77.41 stop the week of 2.17.09. Gain of 12.4%

9. Reversed to LONG the week of 2.17.09 at $83.75 with a stop at $54.53. Took off like a rocket, marching all the way up to $267.02 a little over a year later in April 2010. It held that level into May, then abruptly fell back to earth in June, triggering my $185.42 stop. Gain of 113.2%

10. Reversed to SHORT the week of 6.1.10 at $178.54 with a $250.74 stop. This trade went so bad so fast my head is still spinning six months later. Dipped down a little to $173.32 the very next week, then slowly traded up past $200 before jumping from $224.40 to $295.25 the week of 8.2.10, taking out my $235.97 stop along the way. Loss of -65.4%

11. Reversed to LONG the week of 8.2.10 at $295.25 with a stop at $212.23. Once again it took off into the stratosphere, moving past $400 before the end of the year and closing yesterday at $513.85. The stop is still back down on earth at $402.15. Gain of 74.0%

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 5 | 45.5% | $81.25/share avg.
Losing Trades: 6 | 54.5% | -$23.75/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 36.2% | $23.98/share

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