Monday, April 25, 2011

Mosaic Co. (MOS)

1. SHORT the week of 12.13.04 at $17.15. With the stop set at $20.66 the initial risk (R) on the trade was $3.51. Stopped out and reversed to long at $16.29 the week of 7.5.05. The percentage gain on the trade was 5.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $0.86/$3.51 = 0.25.


2. LONG the week of 7.5.05 at $16.29. The stop was $13.04, so R = $3.25. Stopped out and reversed to short the week of 10.3.05 at $14.66. The percentage loss on the trade was -10.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$1.63/$3.25 = -0.50.

3. SHORT the week of 10.3.05 at $14.66. Using $17.64 for a stop, the R on the trade was $2.98. Stopped out and reversed to long at $15.68 the week of 1.3.06. The percentage loss on the trade was -7.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$1.02/$2.98 = -0.34.

4. LONG the week of 1.3.06 at $15.68.  My stop was set at $13.15, so my R was $2.53. Stopped out and reversed to short the week of 9.2.08 at $94.52. The percentage gain on the trade was 502.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $78.84/$2.53 = 31.11.

5. SHORT the week of 9.2.08 at $94.52. The stop was $144.48, so that means R was $49.96. Stopped out and reversed to long at $45.45 the week of 5.4.09. The percentage gain on the trade was 51.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $49.07/$49.96 = 0.98.

6. LONG the week of 5.4.09 at $45.45.  My stop was set at $27.24, so my R was $18.21. Stopped out and reversed to short the week of 4.26.10 at $51.14. The percentage gain on the trade was 12.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $5.69/$18.21 = 0.31.

7. SHORT the week of 4.26.10 at $51.14. The stop was $63.56, so that means R was $12.42. Stopped out and reversed to long at $56.64 the week of 8.16.10. The percentage loss on the trade was -10.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$5.50/$12.42 = -0.44.

8. LONG the week of 8.16.10 at $56.64. The stop was $41.86, so R = $14.78. Closed last week at $76.77 with a stop at $68.85. The percentage gain on this trade is 35.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $20.13/$14.78 = 1.36.

Bottom Line:
Winning Trades: 5 | 62.5% | $30.92/share avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 37.5% | -$2.72/share
Average Trade: Gain of 72.5% | $18.31/share | Reward-to-Risk Ratio (R): 4.09

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