Monday, April 18, 2011

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

1. SHORT the week of 8.2.04 at $16.91. Setting my stop at $30.66, the initial risk (R) on the trade was $13.75. Stopped out and reversed to long at $14.28 the week of 5.9.05. The percentage gain on the trade was 15.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $2.63/$13.75 = 0.19.



2. LONG the week of 5.9.05 at $14.28. Using $9.96 for a stop, the R was $4.32. Stopped out and reversed to short the week of 7.10.06 at $24.19. The percentage gain on the trade was 69.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $9.91/$4.32 = 2.29.

3. SHORT the week of 7.10.06 at $24.19. The stop was $30.59, so R = $6.40. Stopped out and reversed to long at $27.59 the week of 10.23.06. The percentage loss on the trade was -14.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$3.40/$6.40 = -0.53.

4. LONG the week of 10.23.06 at $27.59. With $20.53 for a stop the R on the trade was $7.06. Stopped out and reversed to short at $22.71 the week of 1.8.07. The percentage loss on the trade was -17.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$4.88/$7.06 = -0.69.

5. SHORT the week of 1.8.07 at $22.71.  The stop was $28.57, so that means R was $5.86. Stopped out and reversed to long the week of 10.1.07 at $22.00. The percentage gain on this trade was 3.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $0.71/$5.86 = 0.12.

6. LONG the week of 10.1.07 at $22.00. The stop was $16.82, so R for the trade was $5.18. Stopped out and reversed to short at $26.74 the week of 6.23.08. The percentage gain on the trade was 21.5%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was $4.74/$5.18 = 0.91.

7. SHORT the week of 6.23.08 at $26.74. The initial stop was $37.73, so R = $10.99. Stopped out and reversed to long at $29.87 the week of 12.29.08. The percentage loss on the trade was -11.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$3.13/$10.99 = -0.28.

8. LONG the week of 12.29.08 at $29.87. With the stop set at $19.25 the R was $10.62. Closed Friday at $235.49 with a $182.92 stop. The percentage gain on this trade is 688.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is $205.62/$10.62 = 19.37.

Scorecard:
Winning Trades: 5 | 62.5% | $44.72/share avg.
Losing Trades: 3 | 37.5% | -$3.80/share avg.
Average Trade: Gain of 94.3% | $26.53/share | Reward-to-Risk Ratio (R): 2.67

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