Wednesday, May 25, 2011

OpenTable (OPEN)

Unfortunately, at least for my own portfolio, both OpenTable and Lululemon occupy that tiny space on page 101 of Seth Godin's awesome book Linchpin that is the intersection of Would Have, Could Have, and Should Have: Didn't.

1. LONG signal (which I did not take) the week of 2.8.10 at $31.10. My stop would have been $23.68, so the risk (R) on the trade would have worked out to $7.42. It closed last week at $90.14 with an $80.55 stop. The percentage gain on this trade would be 189.8% with a reward-to-risk ratio of $59.04/$7.42 = 7.96.

Bottom Line:

Actually, I shouldn't be too upset about not pulling the trigger on OpenTable last February. Heck, I only missed out on a 189.8% gain.

Lululemon Athletica is the one that really hurts. I've mentioned it on this blog before - I passed on a long signal back in March 2009 when the stock was trading at $10.20. Where did it close last week? $96.29. Just an 844% gain, that's all.

It's funny, but I can honestly say I don't regret pulling the trigger on any of the losing trades I've made over the years, even that terrible short last June, but not taking these two trades continues to bother me. 

Mark Twain was right. 

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