Sunday, May 26, 2013

Crying Over Spilled Milk

In this particular case, the spilled milk is Facebook (FB) stock...

BUY signal the week of 11.26.12 at $28.00. My first stop was $19.07, so my risk (R)/share was $8.93. I was stopped out Friday at $24.31. The percentage loss on this trade was -13.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$3.69/$8.93 = -0.41.

History (beginning in 2012):
Winning Trades: 0 | 0.0% | +$0.00/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 100.0% | -$3.69/share avg.
Average Trade: -13.2% | -$3.69/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): -0.41
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): -25.5%
Alpha% (weekly): -1.39%

...and the crying is because I didn't build this sooner. 

If I had, I not only could have/would have/should have avoided both this trade and Zynga, but I also could have/would have/should have picked up: 
  • 3D Systems (DDD) +229.3%
  • Marathon Petroleum (MPC) +86.0%
  • Phillips 66 (PSX) +54.7%
  • Pandora (P) +49.1%
  • Zillow (Z) +58.0%
  • Splunk (SPLK) +6.1%
Granted, I still would have missed out on Caesar's Entertainment (+94.3%), and I guess the LinkedIn trade is working out okay (+47.3%), but that doesn't make me feel a whole lot better.

Wah. Boo hoo. 

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