Saturday, June 23, 2012

Apple (AAPL)

It's time to try and get this blog caught up on everything that has happened in the markets over the last couple of (very turbulent) months. 

Well, not everything that has happened. 

But over the next several days I am going to cover all of the stocks that I've blogged about recently. Some/much of the information is going to be woefully out of date, and I apologize for that, but I think it's important to make updates and bring closure, even for the things that happened several weeks ago. I'd love to forget/not talk about a lot of these trades, but you have to take the bad with the good...

As you might have guessed from the title, we're going to kick things off with Apple

BUY signal the week of 3.30.09 at $115.99. My first stop was $84.39, so my risk (R)/share was $31.60. Closed Friday at $582.10 with a $534.36 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $540.13. The percentage gain on this trade is +401.9%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$466.11/$31.60 = +14.75.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 75.0% | +$193.95/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 25.0% | -$12.10/share avg.
Average Trade: +268.8% | +$142.44/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +10.92

I was just $1.86 away from being stopped out when Apple closed the week of 5.14 at $530.38. Sometimes I wonder if my stops are a little too wide, but I'd say this one is just about right.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Cimarex Energy (XEC)

BUY signal the week of 2.13.12 at $82.78. My first stop was $61.20, so my risk (R)/share was $21.58. Closed the week of 4.16.12 at $63.60, way below my $68.73 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -23.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$19.18/$21.58 = -0.89.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 60.0% | +$31.96/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 40.0% | -$11.18/share avg.
Average Trade: +62.1% | +$14.70/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.34

Wynn Resorts (WYNN)

BUY signal the week of 4.23.12 (Friday) at $135.04. My first stop is $108.18, so my risk (R)/share is $26.86.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$38.71/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +93.2% | +$38.71/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.16

VMWare (VMW)

BUY signal the week of 2.13.12 at $99.11. My first stop was $79.48, so my risk (R)/share was $19.63. Closed Friday at $112.43 with a $92.03 stop. My new stop for this week is $90.76. The percentage gain on this trade is +13.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$13.32/$19.63 = +0.68.

History (beginning in 2007):
Winning Trades: 2 | 66.7% | +$28.72/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 33.3% | -$20.05/share avg.
Average Trade: +45.5% | +$12.46/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.28

Starbucks (SBUX)

BUY signal the week of 4.6.09 at $11.75. My first stop was $7.82, so my risk (R)/share was $3.93. Closed Friday at $57.43 with a $53.27 stop. My new stop for this week is $52.46. The percentage gain on this trade is +388.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$45.68/$3.93 = +11.62.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 2 | 50.0% | +$24.36/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 50.0% | -$4.31/share avg.
Average Trade: +93.4% | +$10.03/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.76

Riverbed Technology (RVBD)

BUY signal the week of 1.17.12 at $28.63. My first stop was $19.82, so my risk (R)/share was $8.81. Closed the week of 4.16.12 at $19.85, not even close to my $22.24 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -30.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$8.78/$8.81 = -1.00.

History (beginning in 2006):
Winning Trades: 1 | 50.0% | +$23.95/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 50.0% | -$8.78/share avg.
Average Trade: +134.7% | +$7.59/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +3.19

Like my recent Netflix trade, this is a very good reminder to always stick with my 1% risk/position-sizing model. 

Rackspace Hosting (RAX)

BUY signal the week of 12.5.11 at $44.02. My first stop was $32.97, so my risk (R)/share was $11.05. Closed Friday at $58.99 with a $46.00 stop. My new stop for this week is $45.82. The percentage gain on this trade is +34.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$14.97/$11.05 = +1.36.

History (beginning in 2008):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$11.70/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +63.9% | +$11.70/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.00