Trading the Volatility System: December 2012

Precision Castparts (PCP)

BUY signal the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My first stop was $103.19, so my risk (R)/share was $23.49. Closed Friday at $183.39 with a $157.39 stop. My new stop for this week is $161.68. The percentage gain on this trade is +44.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$56.71/$23.49 = +2.41.

History (beginning in 2003):

Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$63.25/share avg.

Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.

Average Trade: +210.9% | +$63.25/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +13.46

It might not be the sexiest stock, but there are only three stocks that trade better than Precision Castparts in this system: Apple, Intuitive Surgical, and Mastercard.

Mosaic (MOS)

BUY signal the week of 7.16.12 at $57.50. My first stop was $47.08, so my risk (R)/share was $10.42. Stopped out the week of 10.31.12 at $52.19. The percentage loss on this trade was -9.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$5.31/$10.42 = -0.51.

History (beginning in 2004):

Winning Trades: 3 | 60.0% | +$31.75/share avg.

Losing Trades: 2 | 40.0% | -$3.47/share avg.

Average Trade: +103.0% | +$17.66/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +6.23

Sorry this isn't a more timely post, but my blogging can never seem to keep up with my trading.

Mastercard (MA)

BUY signal the week of 10.18.10 at $242.64. My first stop was $202.75, so my risk (R)/share was $39.89. Closed Friday at $488.68 with a $421.09 stop. My new stop for this week is $430.27. The percentage gain on this trade is +101.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$246.04/$39.89 = +6.17.

History (beginning in 2006):

Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$96.95/share avg.

Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$35.79/share avg.

Average Trade: +51.1% | +$70.40/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.62

Facebook (FB)

BUY signal the week of 11.26.12 (yesterday) at $28.00. My first stop is $19.07, so my risk (R)/share is going to be $8.93.

This is my first Facebook trade... should be interesting.

Salesforce.com (CRM)

BUY signal the week of 2.21.12 at $143.64. My first stop was $108.52, so my risk (R)/share was $35.12. Closed Friday at $157.67 with a $130.35 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $132.15. The percentage gain on this trade is +9.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$14.03/$35.12 = +0.40.

History (beginning in 2004):

Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$29.57/share avg.

Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$0.67/share avg.

Average Trade: +65.2% | +$23.52/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.90

CF Industries (CF)

BUY signal the week of 1.9.12 at $172.55. My first stop was $125.48, so my risk (R)/share was $47.07. Closed Friday at $214.03 with a $187.89 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $188.49. The percentage gain on this trade is +24.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$41.48/$47.07 = +0.88.