Sunday, January 27, 2013

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

BUY signal the week of 1.22.13 (Friday) at $577.82. My first stop will be $473.57, so my risk (R)/share is going to be $104.25 (18.0%). 

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$130.54/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$34.90/share avg.
Average Trade: +167.6% | +$97.45/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +4.45

Regardless of what my gut might be telling me on this one (too expensive and too much risk in absolute dollar terms), I'm going to trust my system and take this trade. It has a much better track record over the last 10 years than my gut does. 

On top of that, at first glance $104.25/share might sound like a lot of risk, but with a 1% risk model (I only risk 1% of my portfolio on any single trade), that 18% risk is only a 0.2% overall portfolio risk. I think I can live with that.

Sunday, January 13, 2013

LinkedIn (LNKD)

BUY signal the week of 1.7.13 (Friday) at $118.00. My first stop is $96.40, so my risk (R)/share is going to be $21.60.

This one kind of makes me nervous, like Facebook. But that trade is working out alright so far (+13.3%), so we'll see how this goes.
 

Saturday, January 5, 2013

Precision Castparts (PCP)

BUY signal the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My first stop was $103.19, so my risk (R)/share was $23.49. Closed Friday at $191.52 with a $170.23 stop. My new stop for this week is $172.21. The percentage gain on this trade is +51.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$64.84/$23.49 = +2.76.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$65.96/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +213.0% | +$65.96/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +13.57

Mastercard (MA)

BUY signal the week of 10.18.10 at $242.64. My first stop was $202.75, so my risk (R)/share was $39.89. Closed Friday at $510.98 with a $439.73 stop. My new stop for this week is $450.87. The percentage gain on this trade is +110.6%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$268.34/$39.89 = +6.73.

History (beginning in 2006):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$102.53/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$35.79/share avg.
Average Trade: +52.9% | +$74.86/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.73

Facebook (FB)

BUY signal the week of 11.26.12 at $28.00. My first stop was $19.07, so my risk (R)/share was $8.93. Closed Friday at $28.76 with a $20.32 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $20.88. The percentage gain on this trade is +2.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$0.76/$8.93 = +0.09.

History (beginning in 2012):
Winning Trades: 1 | 100.0% | +$0.76/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +2.7% | +$0.76/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +0.09

Salesforce.com (CRM)

BUY signal the week of 2.21.12 at $143.64. My first stop was $108.52, so my risk (R)/share was $35.12. Closed Friday at $169.61 with a $142.82 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $142.49. The percentage gain on this trade is +18.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$25.97/$35.12 = +0.74.

History (beginning in 2004):
Winning Trades: 4 | 80.0% | +$32.55/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 20.0% | -$0.67/share avg.
Average Trade: +66.9% | +$25.91/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.97

CF Industries (CF)

BUY signal the week of 1.9.12 at $172.55. My first stop was $125.48, so my risk (R)/share was $47.07. Closed Friday at $210.88 with a $191.88 stop. My new stop for the coming week is $190.71. The percentage gain on this trade is +22.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$38.33/$47.07 = +0.81.

History (beginning in 2006):
Winning Trades: 4 | 100.0% | +$40.63/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +123.1% | +$40.63/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +7.00