Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Cimarex Energy (XEC)

BUY signal the week of 2.13.12 at $82.78. My first stop was $61.20, so my risk (R)/share was $21.58. Closed the week of 4.16.12 at $63.60, way below my $68.73 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -23.2%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$19.18/$21.58 = -0.89.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 60.0% | +$31.96/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 40.0% | -$11.18/share avg.
Average Trade: +62.1% | +$14.70/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.34

Wynn Resorts (WYNN)

BUY signal the week of 4.23.12 (Friday) at $135.04. My first stop is $108.18, so my risk (R)/share is $26.86.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$38.71/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +93.2% | +$38.71/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.16

VMWare (VMW)

BUY signal the week of 2.13.12 at $99.11. My first stop was $79.48, so my risk (R)/share was $19.63. Closed Friday at $112.43 with a $92.03 stop. My new stop for this week is $90.76. The percentage gain on this trade is +13.4%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$13.32/$19.63 = +0.68.

History (beginning in 2007):
Winning Trades: 2 | 66.7% | +$28.72/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 33.3% | -$20.05/share avg.
Average Trade: +45.5% | +$12.46/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +1.28

Starbucks (SBUX)

BUY signal the week of 4.6.09 at $11.75. My first stop was $7.82, so my risk (R)/share was $3.93. Closed Friday at $57.43 with a $53.27 stop. My new stop for this week is $52.46. The percentage gain on this trade is +388.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$45.68/$3.93 = +11.62.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 2 | 50.0% | +$24.36/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 50.0% | -$4.31/share avg.
Average Trade: +93.4% | +$10.03/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.76

Riverbed Technology (RVBD)

BUY signal the week of 1.17.12 at $28.63. My first stop was $19.82, so my risk (R)/share was $8.81. Closed the week of 4.16.12 at $19.85, not even close to my $22.24 stop. The percentage loss on this trade was -30.7%, and the reward-to-risk ratio was -$8.78/$8.81 = -1.00.

History (beginning in 2006):
Winning Trades: 1 | 50.0% | +$23.95/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 50.0% | -$8.78/share avg.
Average Trade: +134.7% | +$7.59/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +3.19

Like my recent Netflix trade, this is a very good reminder to always stick with my 1% risk/position-sizing model. 

Rackspace Hosting (RAX)

BUY signal the week of 12.5.11 at $44.02. My first stop was $32.97, so my risk (R)/share was $11.05. Closed Friday at $58.99 with a $46.00 stop. My new stop for this week is $45.82. The percentage gain on this trade is +34.0%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$14.97/$11.05 = +1.36.

History (beginning in 2008):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$11.70/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +63.9% | +$11.70/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.00

Precision Castparts (PCP)

BUY signal the week of 9.13.10 at $126.68. My first stop was $103.19, so my risk (R)/share was $23.49. Closed Friday at $177.48 with a $155.85 stop. My new stop for this week is $155.70. The percentage gain on this trade is +40.1%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$50.80/$23.49 = +2.16.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 3 | 100.0% | +$61.27/share avg.
Losing Trades: 0 | 0.0% | -$0.00/share avg.
Average Trade: +209.3% | +$61.27/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +13.37

Priceline (PCLN)

BUY signal the week of 2.13.12 at $582.52. My first stop was $483.98, so my risk (R)/share was $98.54. Closed Friday at $762.13 with a $642.48 stop. My new stop for this week is $625.80. The percentage gain on this trade is +30.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is +$179.61/$98.54 = +1.82.

History (beginning in 2003):
Winning Trades: 5 | 71.4% | +$104.50/share avg.
Losing Trades: 2 | 28.6% | -$5.52/share avg.
Average Trade: +77.0% | +$73.07/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +2.68

OpenTable (OPEN)

BUY signal the week of 1.30.12 at $52.00. My first stop was $35.77, so my risk (R)/share was $16.23. Closed Friday at $44.82 with a $39.75 stop. My new stop for this week is $39.62. The percentage loss on this trade is -13.8%, and the reward-to-risk ratio is -$7.18/$23.63 = -0.44.

History (beginning in 2009):
Winning Trades: 1 | 50.0% | +$48.30/share avg.
Losing Trades: 1 | 50.0% | -$7.18/share avg.
Average Trade: +70.7% | +$20.56/share | Reward-to-Risk (R): +3.04